Texas Tech vs BYU Prediction & Closing Line for Saturday’s Big 12 Title Game

• No. 4 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU square off in the Big 12 Championship
• The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 earlier this season
• See our Texas Tech vs BYU prediction and closing line for Saturday’s Big 12 title game

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The 11-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders are laying double-digits against the 11-1 BYU Cougars on Saturday morning.

Kickoff is slated for 12:00 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with ABC carrying the coverage.

Championship Week‼️ pic.twitter.com/i9ZBufEHv4

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) December 1, 2025

Let’s take a deeper dive into this conference championship showdown with my Texas Tech vs BYU prediction and closing line for Saturday’s Big 12 title game.

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Texas Tech vs BYU Prediction

• Texas Tech vs BYU prediction: Under 49.5 (-110)

My Big 12 title game prediction forecasts another defensive struggle between two familiar foes. With these teams having met just four weeks ago and both defenses ranking among the nation’s best, I expect a lower-scoring affair than the total suggests.

Recent Matchup History

It was just four weeks ago when these teams last met, and the Red Raiders displayed their dominance, winning 29-7. Texas Tech gained 368 total yards—219 through the air and 149 on the ground—won the turnover battle 3-0, and held BYU to just 255 total yards. The Cougars mustered only 67 rushing yards and 188 through the air.

The Red Raiders not only won that game but covered as 13.5-point favorites. The Cougars had been, and still are, considered a bit overrated—which is why they’re catching double-digit points again despite this being their second matchup in less than a month.

BYU Cougars Analysis

BYU, led by freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, has played in a handful of narrow games this season. They barely escaped Colorado 24-21, beat Arizona in double overtime 33-27, and then edged Utah 24-21 the following week. To their credit, that win over the Utes was impressive, but the point remains: BYU hasn’t been the most convincing unit in the country.

Just as we all scripted this summer — Bear Bachmeier has the most illustrious rushing season for a BYU QB ever (by rush TDs).

What a special playerpic.twitter.com/lAHGrLsGv7

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 23, 2025

Despite their struggles, the Cougars’ defense ranks 28th in EPA per play, giving them a chance to keep this game competitive even if their offense sputters against Texas Tech’s elite defense.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Analysis

Texas Tech, on the other hand, has been prolific outside of its lone 26-22 upset loss at Arizona State. That loss was egregious—no sugarcoating it—but they’ve looked stellar in every other game. Through their 11 wins, the Red Raiders have the second-highest scoring margin in the country at +29.4.

Their defense is terrific, ranking fifth in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. Their offense has been mediocre, but it hasn’t needed to excel because the defense has been so sturdy.

Senior quarterback Behren Morton has led the Red Raiders this season, completing 68% of his throws for over 2,400 yards with an impressive 20-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Morton is a true pocket passer—no threat to run whatsoever—and if you give him time, he’ll make you pay.

Behren Morton SLINGIN' the rock in Morgantown 🫡#Big12FB | 📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/YwOB0v1FJi

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 29, 2025

Texas Tech ranks 53rd in passing EPA per play and success rate. They’ve struggled to generate any consistent ground game, though, sitting 91st in rush success rate and 107th in rush EPA.

That didn’t matter for tailback Cameron Dickey in their Week 10 matchup, when he carried the ball 23 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Why the Under Hits

I expect the Red Raiders to handle their business again, but I don’t feel comfortable laying another large spread in such a big spot against a team they just faced a month ago. With the winner essentially locking up a College Football Playoff berth, the Cougars aren’t going down without a fight.

That’s why I feel more confident in this game staying under the total of 49.5. There’s familiarity here, which typically leads to a closer, lower-scoring affair. And these are two respected defenses. We know how dominant Tech’s unit has been, but we haven’t even acknowledged the Cougars’ defense, which ranks 28th in EPA per play.

If the Red Raiders’ run game underperforms, they won’t be able to support Morton as efficiently as they’d like. And on the flip side, we already saw Bachmeier struggle against this Red Raiders unit, and I don’t envision him improving drastically this time around either.

This sets up as a tough-nosed battle, with both defenses holding firm for most of the afternoon.

• Best Bet: Texas Tech vs BYU Under 49.5 (-110)

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Texas Tech vs BYU Closing Line for Saturday’s Big 12 Title Game

Odds as of December 5, 2025, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure you check out US betting sites to bet on the Big 12 title game.

The Texas Tech vs BYU closing line has the Red Raiders as significant favorites at home, with the spread sitting at -12.5. This mirrors their previous matchup where they covered as 13.5-point favorites.

The over/under is listed at 49.5, at most sportsbooks, with FanDuel juicing the Under to -115. That type of juice on one side of the total typically indicates which outcome the books are taking bigger wagers on.

Bettors can find value on the best sportsbook promos for this championship game.