Texas Tech vs Utah Prediction, Picks & Odds (Saturday, Sept. 20)

• Utah is a 3.5-point favorite over Texas Tech on Saturday in Salt Lake City
• Behren Morton faces his toughest test yet against Utah’s elite pass defense
• Keep reading for my Texas Tech vs Utah prediction, pick and odds

Two undefeated Big 12 heavyweights clash Saturday when #17 Texas Tech (3-0) visits #16 Utah (3-0) in what could be a preview of the conference championship game. The oddsmakers have this one razor-tight in the college football odds.

Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Texas Tech vs Utah Prediction

Here’s the problem with both these teams: we have no idea how good they actually are. Texas Tech has obliterated Arkansas Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State by a combined 139 points. Those three opponents are 2-7 with wins against a Division II team and a team transitioning from Division II.

Utah hasn’t exactly run the gauntlet either. The Utes crushed UCLA, but the Bruins already fired their coach. Wins over Cal Poly and Wyoming don’t tell us much about their Big 12 readiness.

What we do know is this: Utah owns one of college football’s nastiest home-field advantages. The altitude, the noise, and the 10 AM local kickoff create a brutal welcome for visitors from Texas. Kyle Whittingham is 170-86 at Utah, and his teams consistently dominate the trenches.

TTU vs Utah Key Stats

The Utes have transformed their offense this season. They’re bulldozing teams with 290.0 rushing yards per game at 6.0 yards per carry. Devon Dampier leads both the passing and rushing attacks, giving Utah the dual-threat element that keeps defenses guessing. The junior transfer hasn’t thrown an interception in 174 attempts.

Texas Tech counters with Behren Morton, who’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in seven straight games. The senior has 60 career touchdown passes, more than any current Big 12 quarterback. But here’s the concern: Morton struggles on the road with just a 59 passing grade away from Lubbock compared to 80 at home.

The matchup that decides this game happens in the trenches. Utah’s offensive line ranks second nationally, featuring potential first-round tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Blomu. They’ve allowed the lowest pressure rate in the country at under 8%. Texas Tech’s defensive line grades out as the nation’s best at 92.7, with Skyler Gill-Howard leading the charge as the top-graded defensive tackle.

Texas Tech vs Utah Picks

• Utah -3 (-125 at BetMGM)
• Over 57.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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The line movement tells the story. Utah opened -3.5, but sharp money pushed it down to -3. Now it’s back to -3.5 with money coming in on Utah at the key number. The total has climbed from 55.5 to 57.5, suggesting bettors expect fireworks despite these elite defenses.

Cameron Dickey could be the X-factor for the Red Raiders. He’s looking to become the first Texas Tech player since Eric Stephens in 2011 to score a rushing touchdown in his first four games. But Utah allows just 90 yards rushing per game.

I’m riding with the Utes at home. Utah’s ground game should control the clock and keep Morton watching from the sideline. Meanwhile, the altitude will catch up with Texas Tech in the second half, where Utah has outscored opponents 76-36 this season. I predict Whittingham’s squad grinds out a victory and wins by around a field goal.

Earlier on Friday, you could bet on Utah to cover the field goal spread at regular juice. However, the line has now shifted past that key number. If available at your book, I recommend dipping into the alternate spreads and betting the Utes at -3 instead of -3.5.

In terms of the game total, I’m looking at the Over 57.5. Both teams are scoring machines – Texas Tech leads the nation at 58.0 PPG while Utah puts up 45.7. This is the first real test for both defenses, and the total climbing from 55.5 shows where the smart money’s headed. These offenses will find their rhythm.

Texas Tech vs Utah Odds

The best odds on Utah -3.5 are -104 at FanDuel, while TTU backers should look to grab +3.5 at Caesars at -110. The Red Raiders are +130 to pull the upset, while the total sits at 57.5.

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Odds as of September 17 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 4 college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the public likes Texas Tech to cover the spread, with 70% of bets. The line moved from Utah -3.5 to -3 as a result, but there’s been some buyback on the Utes. Both public and sharp bettors align on the total, pushing it up from 55.5 to 57.5.

The player props show Behren Morton’s passing yards at 259.5, well below his season average of 387.7. That’s a clear nod to Utah’s suffocating pass defense that allows just 134 yards per game. See our top Week 4 college football player props bets.