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Texas vs Sam Houston Spread, Picks & How to Watch (Sep. 20)
By Danny Burke in College Football
Published:
- Texas hosts Sam Houston on Saturday night
- The No. 8 Longhorns are looking for their third win of the season
- See the Texas vs Sam Houston spread, picks and how to watch
Following an uninspiring 27-10 win over UTEP, the Longhorns are hoping to put on a more convincing display tonight against Sam Houston. Texas failed to cover last week as massive -38.5-point favorites and now find themselves in a similar spot against the winless Bearkats.
The question is, can Arch Manning and company finally look like the team many expected them to be? Let’s dig into my Texas vs. Sam Houston preview with the spread, prediction and picks.
Texas vs Sam Houston Spread
Odds via FanDuel as of September 20 at 4 pm ET.
The massive 39.5-point spread reflects the significant talent gap between these programs, with Texas expected to dominate at home against a Sam Houston team that has struggled defensively through three games.
The total of 51.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a relatively low-scoring affair, likely due to the potential for Texas to build a large lead early and coast in the second half.
Texas vs Sam Houston Prediction & Picks
Best Bets:
- Texas Team Total Over 44.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
- Arch Manning Over 255.5 passing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
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Through three games, Heisman hopeful Arch Manning has completed just 55% of his passes for 579 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. Those kinds of lackluster numbers could be excused if he were facing an Ohio State-level defense every week — but after that matchup, he drew San Jose State and UTEP.
There’s no reason for Manning’s stats to look this poor, and they hardly resemble the makings of a playoff-caliber team or NFL prospect.
That said, Sam Houston presents the ideal matchup for Manning to get back on track. The Bearkats rank 118th in defensive EPA per play and 110th in success rate allowed. It’s no surprise that, despite the shaky start, Texas is laying nearly 40 points.
Sam Houston has already given up 37 points to Hawaii, 38 to UNLV, and 41 to Western Kentucky in its first three games. The Longhorns’ team total sits at 44.5 (juiced to the over at -125 on DraftKings), and this is the type of spot where they need to make a statement. Scoring 45+ against one of the nation’s worst defenses is the standard they should be held to.
Focusing solely on the team total takes the Longhorns’ defense out of the equation, eliminating the need for them to hold up in order to cover the spread. I’d rather just bank on Arch Manning and this Texas offense to dominate for four quarters.
Another angle worth considering revolves around Manning’s props. You can grab him to throw over 2.5 passing touchdowns at even money at most sportsbooks, or take his passing yards over 255.5. Both look like viable options in what should be a scoring showcase for this offense.
How to Watch Texas vs Sam Houston
This game will only be available to stream on ESPN+ and the SEC Network+. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Danny Burke brings nearly a decade of experience in sports media and betting, beginning at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, where he called Huskers games, developed the betting section of the local ESPN affiliate’s website, and co-hosted on its radio station. He later hosted national programs wit
