Toledo vs Louisville Prediction, Props & Odds – Boca Raton Bowl

• Louisville is a 7.5-point favorite over Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl
• Three defensive starters are opting out for the Rockets, while their starting QB is unlikely to play
• See my Toledo vs Louisville prediction, props and odds for the Boca Raton Bowl below

We’ve got a tripleheader of Bowl Games on Tuesday, starting with Toledo (8-4) taking on Louisville (8-4) in the Boca Raton Bowl. This should have been a highly competitive contest, but key opt outs and injuries are putting the Rockets behind the eight ball. As a result, the Cardinals are touchdown-plus favorites in the college football odds, and I’m predicting a convincing win for them in this matchup.

The action is set for 2 pm ET from Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Toledo vs Louisville prediction, plus props and odds for the Boca Raton Bowl.

Toledo vs Louisville Prediction

The Cardinals are currently 7.5-point favorites, but my official Toledo vs Louisville prediction will be the Cards -3.5 in the first half. I’m expecting a slow start for the Rockets, as they’ll be breaking in an interim coach while missing key players on both sides of the ball.

Let’s start on defense. Toledo was one of the stingiest units in the nation during the regular season, ranking top-five in points and yards allowed, as well as yards per play and opponent red zone scoring percentage. The problem is, head coach Jason Candle has left the team for UConn, while DC Vince Kehres have moved on to Syracuse.

Several Toledo players chose to follow suit, including defensive starters Malachi Davis, Braden Awls, and Chris D’Appolonia. There’s a chance more defenders show up in college football opt outs tracker, and it’s safe to say the absences lower the Rockets defensive prowess.

As for the offense, starting QB Tucker Gleason is injured and unlikely to play. That means freshman Kalieb Osborne will be under center, and he’s attempted only 24 passes at the collegiate level. All of those throws were versus MAC competition, and no offense to the conference, but Louisville is a big step up.

Jeff Brohm’s squad is talented and battle tested, ranking top-35 in most key defensive metrics, despite playing nearly all Power 4 opponents. Louisville is especially strong against the pass, and do an excellent job generating pressure and forcing turnovers. That sounds like a major recipe for success against an inexperienced quarterback, especially one that isn’t used to the national spotlight.

Louisville Defensive Stats

The Cardinals aren’t void of absences either as star receiver Chris Bell is out, while starting RB Isaac Brown might sit as well. Those losses sting, but the cupboard isn’t bare behind them. Louisville will have starting QB Miller Moss at the helm, and he has a stable of secondary receivers who all averaged 10+ yards per catch, led by Caullin Lacy.

If Brown can’t go, Keyjuan Brown will be ready to roll, and he’s coming off a season where averaged 7.3 yards per carry and scored six times. The sophomore ended the regular season with back-to-back 130+ rushing yard performances, and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt over his last four games.

Moss meanwhile, threw 3 TD in his final start of the regular season, and the offensive vibes should be high after they hung 41 points on Kentucky in that outing.

Ultimately, this is too big a step up for Toledo given the missing pieces. Louisville was close to the final 12 CFP bracket contenders for most of the season, and took down #10 Miami. They’ll have a major pregame coaching advantage, and I trust them to come out with the hair on fire and cover this first half spread.

Toledo vs Louisville Props

Speaking of Miami, Canes starter Carson Beck was picked off four times by this Cardinals defense. Louisville does an excellent job of forcing bad throws and limiting explosive plays, keeping completions short and to a minimum. Opposing QB’s completed less than 60% of their throws against Louisville this season, and I expect Osborne to be overwhelmed by the speed and defensive scheme of the Cardinals.

Toledo vs Louisville Boca Raton Bowl Odds

As for the Toledo vs Louisville odds, the spread has seen a ton of movement per the college football public betting trends. The line opened at Cardinals -9.5, before dipping all the way down to -6.5. There’s been some buy back on Louisville due to all the Rockets absences, moving the line back to -7.5.

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Total-wise, the number varies between 43.5 and 44.5, and I’d lean under if forced to choose a side. I don’t anticipate Toledo having much success moving the ball, while I envision a run heavy script from the Cardinals. That will shorten the game and limit possessions, likely keeping this game below the number.