Troy vs Jax State Prediction, Latest Opt Outs & Odds – Tuesday (Dec. 16)

• Jacksonville State is a 1-point favorite over Troy in tonight’s Salute to Veterans Bowl
• Trojans RB Tae Meadows is opting out to enter the transfer portal
• See my Troy vs Jax State prediction below, plus the latest opt-outs and odds below

In state rivals clash tonight as Troy (8-5) takes on Jacksonville State (8-5) in the Salute to Veterans Bowl. The two Alabama programs will meet roughly halfway between each campus, setting up for a raucous environment on a Tuesday night.

This contest has seen plenty of movement in the college football odds, with the Gamecocks going from near field goal underdogs to short road favorites over the course of 48 hours.

The action is set for 9pm ET from Cramton Bowl, in Montgomery, AL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Troy vs Jax State prediction, plus the latest opt-outs and odds.

Troy vs Jax State Prediction

I’m following the line move and taking the Gamecocks as 1-point favorites. Full disclosure, I bet this game when the line was Jax State +2.5, but I’d be comfortable laying up to a field goal with the Gamecocks, and here’s why.

Let’s start with the play on the field. The Trojans offense enters play ranked 90th in points per game, and outside the top-120 in yards per game and yards per play. No surprise, they struggle to find early down success ranking 113th in that metric, and are converting only 38% of their third down tries.

To matters worse, Troy’s offensive line is a mess. They grade out 113th in run blocking, and 118th in pass blocking. They allow sacks on 12.87% of their drop backs, one of the worst marks in the nation, and average nearly a turnover and a half per game.

That would be problematic under any circumstance, but it will be amplified tonight without both their starting quarterback and top running back – more on that later.

It’s also an issue given the strength of the Jacksonville State defense. JSU does an excellent job at creating havoc, generating sacks on 6% of opponent drop backs, while forcing nearly 2 turnovers per outing. The Gamecocks are also stout against the run, ranking 59th in opponent yards per carry

Jacksonville State Defense

As for the Jax State offense, they enter play averaging 4.5 points more per game than their opponent, and 1.5 more yards per play. They are a run first unit, led by lead back Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Caden Creel. The duo combined to rush for over 2,700 yards and 23 rushing TD this season, and a rush heavy approach is exactly the way to attack this Trojans defense.

Troy yields an average of 182.7 rushing yards per game, and ranks outside the top-70 in EPA/rush allowed. Contrast that to their pass defense, that ranks 29th in passing yards allowed, and 30th in sack rate.

The Trojans run defense woes were on full display in the Sun Belt Championship Game vs CFP bracket contender James Madison. The Dukes eviscerated Troy on the ground to the tune of 318 rushing yards, 2 TD, and a 7.6 yards per carry average.

Troy vs Jacksonville State Opt Outs

Another reason to like the Gamecocks tonight is that they are healthy, with zero opt outs. The Trojans on the other hand, will be missing star running back Tae Meadows, who’s opting out to enter the transfer portal.

Ditto for defensive lineman DJ Jackson Jr., who was tied for fifth on the team in sacks. Troy will also be without starting QB Goose Crowder due to a left ankle injury, as well as three offensive linemen.

Troy vs Jax State Odds

The best place to bet Jacksonville State right now is at Bet365. They’re currently listing the Gamecocks as 1-point favorites, while some other commercial books have already moved the spread to -1.5.

Total-wise, the number varies between 48.5 and 49.5. Given the Troy injury situation, as well as the advantages Jax State has on defense, I’d lean under if forced to choose.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of Dec. 16 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, sharp money is pounding the Gamecocks before kickoff. Jacksonville State is garnering 70% of the spread handle off just 54% of the tickets, meaning those bet biggest (typically pros) are backing the Gamecocks like me.