Tulane vs UTSA Prediction, Best Bets & Odds for AAC Football Week 10

• The Tulane Green Wave are 3.5-point favorites against the UTSA Roadrunners
• Tulane has rolled up a perfect 3-0 record so far in AAC action
• See below for my Tulane vs UTSA State prediction, best bet and odds

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Battling at the top of the American Conference, the Tulane Green Wave (6-1, 3-0 AAC) look for their fourth win in a row when they collide with the UTSA Roadrunners (3-4, 1-2 AAC).

The books like the American conference’s current second-place team college football odds, playing at a neutral venue.

I believe those odds would actually be higher if not for some inflated UTSA scores pushing up their scoring average and simultaneously undervaluing the favorites, as I explain in my Tulane vs UTSA prediction below.

Kickoff is scheduled for Wednesday at 7:30pm ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.

Tulane vs UTSA State Prediction

I’m backing the favorite to cover the spread for my Tulane vs UTSA prediction. The Green Wave just crack the Top 10 in scoring in the American, but they bring the third-ranked scoring defense to the table.

Since a 45-10 loss to then 13th-ranked Ole Miss right before the conference schedule kicked in, Tulane has closed the door defensively, limiting Tulsa, East Carolina and Army to under 20 points in three straight wins.

That’s allowed the Green Wave to get by scoring 25.9 points per game, which ranks 85th in the nation. They average 180.9 yards rushing, and 223.7 yards passing, both Top 8 marks in the AAC.

UTSA opened the season with two straight losses, including against its only ranked opponent (Texas A&M), and have gone 3-2 since, those two losses in conference action.

Most recently, the Roadrunners were crushed 55-17 by North Texas, the top-scoring team in the AAC.

It’s really all highs and lows for this team. They are ranked sixth in scoring in the conference at a nice round figure of 32 points per game, but so many of those points lately have come from two blowout wins: a 48-20 trouncing of Incarnate Word, and a 61-13 whipping of Rice, a Bottom-4 school in the conference.

Take away those lopsided wins, and they averaged just 18.3 points across the other three games.

The most recent meeting between these teams was in 2023, when the Green Wave held the Roadrunners down in a 29-16 victory.

Tulane has been a betting favorite in all but one game this year, and have gone 4-2-0 against the spread.

Look for more steady offense, complimented by a tough defense to keep Tulane with just a single loss on the season.

Tulane vs UTSA Best Bet

• Pick: Tulane -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Given what I outlined in my Wednesday college football prediction above, the Green Wave to cover 3.5 points is my best bet for Oct. 29.

After throwing for less than 200 yards in three of his first four starts, junior QB Jake Retzlaff has turned it up in conference play, throwing for at least 240 yards in all three games, with a high of 347 against East Carolina.

He’s also thrown four TD passes and run in two others, while throwing just one interception.

Tulane vs UTSA: Key Offensive Stats

That’s not good news for the Roadrunners, who rank outside the conference Top 10 in scoring, allowing 30.9 points per game.

UTSA is quite vulnerable to the pass, allowing 246.9 yards per game, and their 16 TD passes allowed on the season ranks second-last in the conference, ahead of only Charlotte.

Offensively they’re right there with Tulane running the ball, averaging 184.9 yards, but they’ll look for more from QB Owen McCown, coming off his worst game of the season.

McCown threw for a season-low 84 yards and was sacked three times in the loss to North Texas.

Tulane vs UTSA Odds

The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

There’s been little line movement since the odds opened last week at 4.5 points, and has come down almost across the board to Tulane -3.5. DraftKings does have UTSA currently at +4.

The moneyline had been in the -200 to -225 range, but has since moved down to around -168 at FanDuel for Tulane, and +160 at BetMGM for UTSA.

The total has remained mostly at 55.5 points, though a little digging and you can find half-point movement in either direction.