UMass vs New Mexico State Prediction, Odds & Spread (Aug. 26)

• UMass visits New Mexico State in a college football Week 0 game on Saturday, August 26th
• The Aggies are priced as 6.5-point favorites over the Minutemen
• Read below for our UMass vs New Mexico State prediction, plus betting odds

The UMass Minutemen will face off against the New Mexico State Aggies in college football week 0 on Saturday, August 26th, 2023, at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The game is set to start at 7:00 PM ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Aggies are favored in this matchup, with a spread of 6.5 points, and the over/under is set at 44.5 points. NMSU went 7-6 last season, while UMass posted a 1-11 record. Both schools were independent last year, but the Aggies are now a part of Conference USA.

Let’s dive deeper into the UMass vs New Mexico State odds and offer you our prediction for this college football week 0 clash.

UMass vs New Mexico State Odds

New Mexico State is a -245 favorite on the moneyline in the college football odds, giving them an implied win probability of 71%.

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Odds as of August 24th, 2023 at Caesars Sportsbook. Grab a Caesars promo code to bet on the game or check out the best college football sports betting sites. 

Aggies Look to Build Off Strong Finish to 2022

New Mexico State enters this college football week 0 matchup coming off a 7-6 record last season, including a win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. The Aggies’ biggest strength last season was their defense, which ranked 30th overall.

Diehard college football bettors are likely familiar with this Aggies team, as they were one of the most profitable College Football ATS teams last season with an 8-5 mark against the spread. Playing a significant role in that success was quarterback Diego Pavia, who returns for his junior season.

Players to watch

New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia

Pavia is one of the best QBs in the new look CUSA. He is a true dual threat. Pavia threw for 1,450 yards and ran for 508 last season. While his accuracy needs to improve, he has game changing playmaking ability. pic.twitter.com/th8N4QdL8L

— Brendan Moore (@bmoorecfb) August 10, 2023

During the 2022 campaign, Pavia passed for 1,450 yards and 13 TDs with only six interceptions while rushing for 508 yards. The Aggies also feature one of the better running backs in the conference, Star Thomas, who rushed for 525 yards and five TDs in 2022.

New Mexico State ended last season on a positive note, and they’ll have a significant advantage over UMass playing in the Mexican weather to start the 2023 campaign. When NMSU was favored by 6.5 points or more last year, the Aggies covered the spread in two out of three instances.

Minutemen Hoping to Turn Things Around

To put things bluntly, things haven’t been going well for the UMass Minutemen. Don Brown’s team is coming off a 1-11 record in 2022 and have only won a total of three college football games in the past four years.

Despite UMass’s struggles, the Minutemen surprisingly ranked 55th in total defense last year. Their offense was a completely different story, however, as UMass ranked 131st in points scored per game (12.5) and 130th in passing yards per game (131).

Taisun Phommachanh is QB1 as UMass starts the football season. pic.twitter.com/4hi7qzpLxq

— Howard Herman (@howardherman) August 21, 2023

The Minutemen do return with their starting quarterback, Brady Olson, who threw for 791 yards and two touchdowns last season. It will be Georgia Tech transfer, Taisun Phommachanh, however, who gets the start against NMSU. Talented running back Ellis Meriwether, who rushed for 575 yards in 2022, is now in the NFL.

Unlike the Aggies, the Minutemen weren’t able to turn a profit for college football bettors last season. UMass had a 5-7 ATS record last season and a 4-6 ATS mark when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs.

UMass vs New Mexico State Prediction

When it comes to our UMass versus New Mexico State prediction, it’s clear one side holds the edge in this college football week 0 showdown. The Aggies enter with plenty of momentum following a three-game winning streak to close out last year, while the Minutemen are just looking for a fresh start.

UMass’s defense was surprisingly efficient in 2022, but their secondary was much better than their rush defense. The Minutemen allowed 194.3 rushing yards per game last season, which was 114th nationally. Conversely, New Mexico State’s strength on offense is its run game, which averaged 161.5 yards per game last season (57th).

The last time these two teams met was in October of last season when the Aggies cruised to a 10-point victory. Look for Jerry Kill’s team to rely on its ground game to control the tempo and secure another double-digit victory over the Minutemen.

• Pick: New Mexico State -6.5 (-110)