UNLV vs Boise State Prediction, Pick, Trends & Line Movement – Week 8 Mountain West Conference

• Undefeated UNLV travels to Boise State as 12.5-point underdogs in CFB Week 8
• The Broncos have won 15 straight home games at Albertsons Stadium
• See below for my UNLV vs Boise State prediction, betting trends, and updated odds

The biggest Mountain West game of the year takes place Saturday afternoon on the blue turf. Undefeated UNLV (6-0) visits Boise State (4-2) with major conference championship implications on the line.

The Rebels survived another close one last week, beating Air Force 51-48 in a back-and-forth shootout. Boise State, meanwhile, dominated New Mexico 49-10 after their setback vs Notre Dame.

Both teams are 2-0 in Mountain West play. This could be a preview of the conference championship game in December.

Keep reading for my UNLV vs Boise State pick and the latest betting angles for CFB Week 8.

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction & Pick

• Score Prediction: Boise State 38 – UNLV 24

• Expert Spread Pick: Boise State -12.5 (-111)

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UNLV’s undefeated record is impressive, but it’s worth looking at how they got here. They’ve won six games by a combined 51 points. That’s the second-smallest margin for any 6-0 team since 2000.

Four of their wins came by seven points or less. They needed overtime to beat Idaho State. They beat Air Force by four points last week despite giving up over 400 rushing yards.

Now I want to look at those defensive numbers. UNLV struggles to stop the run. They’re 109th nationally in run defense grade and 130th in yards per carry allowed. That could be a real problem against Boise State.

UNLV vs Boise State Defensive Stats

The Broncos average 6 yards per carry in their wins. Running backs Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley have combined for 19 missed tackles forced. Riley ranks fourth nationally with 172 rushing yards on third down despite just seven carries.

Boise State’s offensive line has been playing well. They’ve allowed just 11 sacks all season with an 87% pass block win rate. UNLV has generated only seven sacks all year. I think Maddux Madsen will have time to work in the pocket.

Speaking of Madsen, his splits are interesting. In wins, he has a 157.2 passer rating with a 31-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In losses? A 99.9 rating with 3 touchdowns and 7 picks. At home, I expect the better version to show up.

Madsen 2025 Splits

Anthony Colandrea has been solid for UNLV, though his turnover-worthy play rate was a concern at Virginia last year. Boise State does force mistakes – they’re plus-5 in turnover margin this season.

Then there’s the venue factor. Albertsons Stadium has been tough for visitors. Boise State has won 15 straight home games, tied with Alabama for the longest active streak. They haven’t lost at home since September 9, 2023.

UNLV is 0-6 all-time in Boise. They’ve lost those games by an average of 18 points, which is worth considering.

The line movement is telling too. This opened at Boise State -10.5 and moved to -12.5. That suggests the market sees UNLV’s defense as vulnerable against a physical team.

Dan Mullen is a good coach, but this is a tough spot for his team. I’m predicting Boise State controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and pulls away in the second half. The home crowd should be a factor, too.

UNLV vs Boise State Betting Trends

The trends overwhelmingly favor Boise State, especially at home, where they’ve been nearly unbeatable both straight up and against the spread.

Boise State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and on fieldturf. They’re also 5-0 straight up and ATS in their last five October games.

UNLV has struggled on the road against good teams. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with winning home records.

The Under has been money in UNLV games lately. It’s hit in six straight Rebels games after they rush for 200-plus yards. The Under is also 4-1 in UNLV’s last five road games.

For Boise State, the Over is 4-1 in their last five games overall. But historically in this series, scoring has been limited. Three of the last five meetings went Under the total.

UNLV vs Boise State Updated Odds

Odds as of Friday, October 17 at Caesars. Be sure to claim the best Caesars Sportsbook promo before making your UNLV vs Boise State predictions.

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The spread has moved notably since opening. Boise State opened -10.5 before sharp action pushed it through to -12.5. That’s a significant two-point shift that speaks to where the big money is headed.

The total saw an even greater movement. It crashed all the way to 60.5 after opening at 65.5. A five-point drop signals major market correction on UNLV’s offensive capabilities in Boise.

The moneyline implies Boise State has a 79.4% chance of winning. UNLV backers getting +366 need the Rebels to pull off what would be a shocking upset.

CFB public betting shows that 81% of both spread tickets and ATS bets are on Boise State to cover, but the line is moving the other way. That reverse line movement toward the Broncos indicates sharp money disagrees with the public’s UNLV support.