UNLV vs Ohio Prediction, Picks & Opt Out News – Frisco Bowl

• UNLV is a 6.5-point favorite over Ohio in tonight’s Frisco Bowl
• The Rebels rank 124th in yards per carry allowed, and 126th in opponent red zone scoring percentage
• See my UNLV vs Ohio prediction and picks, plus opt out news for the Frisco Bowl below

Tuesday’s Bowl Game tripleheader concludes with UNLV (10-3) taking on Ohio (8-4) in the Frisco Bowl. This game has seen major line movement leading up to kickoff, as the Rebels have gone from 4.5-point favorites to 6.5-point chalk in the latest college football odds. I think the UNLV love has gone way too far, and I’m backing the dog as my favorite UNLV vs Ohio pick.

The action is set for 9 pm ET from the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, TX, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my UNLV vs Ohio predictions and picks, plus opt-out news and closing odds for the Frisco Bowl.

UNLV vs Ohio Prediction and Picks

You might think a 10 win team versus a MAC program would lend itself to a blowout, especially since the underdog just lost its coach. However, the Bobcats have been in this situation before, and bring one of the country’s longest Bowl winning streaks into play.

Just last year, Ohio watched head coach Tim Albin leave for Charlotte, but that didn’t deter the Bobcats from picking up a Bowl victory. They’ve haven’t lost a Bowl Game since 2016, and will field a roster that isn’t expected to be missing any starters.

The strength of the Bobcats lies in the trenches, where they rank top-40 in line yards on both sides of the ball. Their run game is efficient and explosive, ranking top-16 in yards per carry, and 9th in rushing yards per game. Lead back Sieh Bangura put up a 1,200 yard season, with 14 TD, while QB Parker Navarro is a dangerous dual threat option.

Navarro threw for over 2,200 yards with 14 TD, while rushing for 843 yards and 8 scores. He plays behind a veteran offensive line that features four seniors, and averages 8 yards per throw when he does take to the air.

Expect plenty of success for Ohio on offense, as the Rebels defense is an exploitable unit. UNLV ranks 124th in yards per carry allowed, and 89th in yards per throw surrendered. They’re extremely undisciplined (130th in penalties) and can’t stop a noose bleed in close. The Rebels rank 126th in opponent red zone scoring percentage, yielding points on 91.18% of red zone drives against.

UNLV Defense Stats

Sticking with the Bobcats, they simply don’t get blown out. Just one of their four losses was by more than one score, and that was against Ohio State, the CFP bracket favorites.

As for UNLV, they’re a premier offensive team, but I simply can’t trust their defense to get stops and allow them to build margin. The Rebels will find success on offense, led by QB Anthony Colandrea and lead back Jai’Den Thomas, but I do expect their efficiency to take a hit.

UNLV enters play with top-20 EPA marks in both rushing and passing, but the front four of the Bobcats can disrupt timing and production in a hurry. Ohio ranks 36th in scoring defense this season, and 35th in opponent yards per game. They do an excellent job of generating pressure and forcing turnovers, ranking 53rd in sack percentage and 26th in opponent INT rate. Like their offense, the Bobcats D-Line is loaded veterans, and has faced plenty of tough competition.

Despite playing in the MAC, Ohio’s strength of schedule grades out 35 spots higher than UNLV’s. I’ll take a sprinkle on the Bobcats to keep their Bowl Game winning streak alive, but the bulk of my action will be played on them +6.5 points.

UNLV vs Ohio Opt Out News

Shockingly, neither team has any names listed in the college football opt outs tracker. There was a chance Navarro might this game due to his ongoing eligibility legal dispute with the NCAA, but a decision on that front won’t happen anytime soon.

UNLV vs Ohio Frisco Bowl Odds

The best place to bet Ohio +6.5 is over at Bet365, as their -105 odds are the most favorable in market. Total-wise, the number hovers between 65.5 and 66.5 depending on where you look, while Bet365 also has the longest odds on the Bobcats to pull off the upset.

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Odds as of Dec. 23 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, Ohio was 2-1-1 as underdogs this season, pushing versus Ohio State, and winning outright against West Virginia.