Updated Duke vs Virginia Spread & Expert Prediction – ACC Championship

• Virginia is a modest 4-point favorite to defeat Duke in the ACC Championship game Saturday night on ABC
• The Blue Devils and Cavaliers just faced off on November 15th, with Virginia winning 34-17
• See below for the Duke vs Virginia spread, my expert prediction, and another possible bet for Saturday night

Yes, we deliver an ACC rematch on Saturday, featuring the unranked Duke Blue Devils (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) taking on the #17 Virginia Cavaliers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) in this primetime ABC-televised matchup.

The books slightly lean on Virginia to get that 11th win. That would at least offer some solace to ACC experts and our College Football odds.

This conference championship contest is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, with ABC providing the coverage.

Duke vs Virginia Spread

Virginia rolls in as a 4-point favorite on the spread for Saturday night CFB, with an updated listed total of 57.5 points. The Cavaliers stand as -180 favorites on the moneyline, with Duke coming back as +150 underdogs. We have the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds here.

A $180 wager on the favorites would pay out $100, while a $100 bet on the underdogs returns $150 should they emerge victorious.

As for the National Championship odds, Virginia is at +50000, and Duke rumbles in at +250000.

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 6. Check out the College Football betting apps before wagering on Saturday CFB.

Duke vs Virginia Spread Movement

The Duke vs Virginia spread has seen interesting movement throughout the week. Opening at +2.5 for Duke on November 30, the line shifted to +3 by Sunday evening as bettors weighed this ACC Championship rematch.

The most notable movement came Thursday morning when the line jumped from +3.5 to +4. This wider spread held steady through most of Thursday before briefly returning to +3.5.

As of Saturday morning, the Duke vs Virginia spread fluctuates between +3.5 and +4, with most books settling at Duke +4 (-112). Getting Duke at +4 versus +3.5 represents significant value in what projects as a close contest.

Expert Duke vs Virginia Prediction

My Duke vs Virginia prediction: Virginia 29, Duke 25

This Duke vs Virginia expert prediction sees the Cavaliers pulling away late in a tightly contested ACC Championship rematch. Virginia’s ability to control the clock and limit Duke’s explosive plays should be the difference.

Duke Blue Devils Analysis

Duke counters with Darian Mensah. Mensah has been unbelievable overall in 2025 with 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The problem is that when the competition steps up, the Blue Devils and Mensah step the wrong way.

He had great passing yard totals against Georgia Tech and Illinois, but Virginia clogged up the secondary. Mensah only completed 18 of 35 passes while having his worst performance of the season.

The Blue Devils have gone 0-3 against ranked teams in 2025, failing to score 20 points in any of these contests. This troubling trend raises concerns about their ability to compete in this Duke vs Virginia spread matchup.

Duke yields the fourth-most passing yards in the ACC and faces Chandler Morris, who has been a different quarterback since getting hurt against Wake Forest. He will make mistakes, which could keep the score down. However, his toughness cannot be questioned.

Virginia Cavaliers Analysis

QB Chandler Morris can lean on RB J’Mari Taylor. Taylor had nearly 1,000 rushing yards, but 39 catches for 219 yards as well. Taylor is a red zone pounding back with 14 touchdowns.

Treli Harris is the big-play wide receiver, with Sage Ennis emerging as a solid tight end around the goal line. Both pass catchers have five touchdowns each.

The Cavaliers’ balanced offensive attack has been the key to their 10-2 season. Morris’s ability to distribute the ball to multiple weapons while limiting turnovers gives Virginia a significant edge in this Duke vs Virginia prediction.

Matchup number one featured the Virginia offense as they stymied Duke for three quarters. The Blue Devils managed a mere three points before they scored two touchdowns in garbage time.

Virginia’s defensive game plan clearly frustrated Mensah and the Duke offense, forcing them into unfavorable down-and-distance situations throughout the contest.

Duke vs Virginia Pick

• Best Bet 1: Duke and Virginia Under 57.5 points (-108)

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My Duke vs Virginia pick has the Cavaliers and Blue Devils scoring 57 points or less on Saturday night. Both teams have more than capable offenses, but the defenses might surprise here just enough.

The potential exists for a lower-scoring game like the Duke-Georgia Tech contest, especially if Virginia gets an early lead. The Cavaliers have shown the ability to control tempo when ahead, grinding out clock with their rushing attack.

One More Prediction For The Road?

• Best Bet 2: Virginia (-4) Over Duke (-108 via DraftKings)

The SBD model has Virginia winning by a score of 29.9 to 25.4. This game is truly up to Virginia. If they force a few Duke mistakes while not making too many of their own, the Cavaliers can control the ball, win, and cover in this rematch.

The Duke vs Virginia spread of -4 offers solid value for Virginia backers who believe the Cavaliers’ first-meeting dominance will translate to a comfortable victory. Looking for more College Football betting action? Check out the best online sportsbook options for championship weekend.