Updated Miami vs Ohio State Spread & Expert Prediction for Cotton Bowl

• Ohio State plays in its third straight Cotton Bowl
• Miami looks for its first major bowl win in over 20 years
• Keep reading for my Miami vs Ohio State pick as well as the updated spread

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The Miami Hurricanes (11-2) and Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) meet for the first time since 2011 in the Cotton Bowl, a College Football Playoff quarterfinal game. AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, will host the game at 7:30 PM ET on Dec. 31. ESPN will broadcast the game.

Keep reading for my Miami vs Ohio State prediction as well as my pick and the Cotton Bowl odds.

Miami vs Ohio State Spread

The Buckeyes are big favorites in the Cotton Bowl odds. Ohio State bettors can get the Buckeyes at -9.5 on the spread at Caesars (-105 odds) or -350 odds on the moneyline at Sports Interaction. Miami bettors can get the Hurricanes at +9.5 on the spread at BetRivers (-109 odds) or +285 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

The total is set between 42 and 42.5 points. Over bettors can get over 42 at BetRivers for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 42.5 for -110 odds on Sports Interaction.

Odds as of December 29, 2025, at consensus College Football betting apps. Make sure you check out the best online sportsbook to bet on the Cotton Bowl.

Miami vs Ohio State Prediction

My Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State 20, Miami 13

I have Ohio State winning a close game with Miami covering the 9.5-point spread. While my score pick is solidly under the total, I have less confidence in that result.

Miami vs Ohio State Pick

• Miami +9

I am backing Miami +9 in the Cotton Bowl for three primary reasons:

• Ohio State is as good as any team in the country across the board, but the closest thing to a flaw is its offensive line. Ohio State has a good offensive line, but it is not an elite unit. On the other side, Miami has an elite defensive line with two of the top edge defenders in the country in Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. Both Bain and Mesidor are elite two-way players, so they should be effective no matter the game script.
• Miami has not allowed more than 26 points all season, allowing 17 or fewer in nine games. Against ranked teams, Miami has allowed 68 points in five games, good for under 14 points per game.
• On the flip side, Ohio State is only averaging 21.3 points per game against ranked teams, down from its season average of 34.9 points per game.

Looking at Miami

Offensive Star: Malachi Toney, Receiver

Toney leads the ACC with eight receiving touchdowns, and he has added both a rushing touchdown and two passing touchdowns. He is also a notably dynamic punt returner, averaging 15.8 yards per return. While only a true freshman, Toney is already a star and perhaps the second-best receiver in the country.

Malachi Toney 12 REC, 162 Total YDS, 1 TD vs Virginia Tech Today.pic.twitter.com/sJFJze1EeA https://t.co/EzJBuCVHRL

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) November 22, 2025

On Wednesday, he will surpass 1,000 receiving yards. Toney has scored in five straight games, scoring the winner against Texas A&M in the first round. Toney has four games with 100 receiving yards. In games against ranked opponents, Toney has balled out, contributing 82 yards and a touchdown versus Notre Dame, 107 yards and two touchdowns versus Florida State, and 126 yards and two total touchdowns against Pittsburgh.

Defensive Star: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge

ACC Defensive Player of the Year and likely top-10 pick Rueben Bain is the man to watch. Miami has a talented defense with several future NFL players, but Bain is a future star at the next level. This season, Bain has 11.5 tackles for a loss with 7.5 sacks. He has also added an interception.

Few in the country are as well-rounded as Bain. Not only is Bain a supreme pass rusher, but he is also among the best run defenders in the country. No player in the country has a higher PFF defense grade with more snaps played than Bain’s 707. His 66 pressures are tied for third in the country.

X-Factor: Carson Beck’s Experience

Beck, for all his flaws, is as experience as they come in college football. This is his sixth season of college football and his third season as a starter. He has over 11,000 passing yards and 84 touchdowns to his name. He can be mistake prone – he has led his conference in interceptions each of the last two seasons – but he is superb when kept clean.

When kept clean in the pocket, Beck has an excellent 117.8 NFL passer rating, throwing 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions at a 76.9% completion rate. When under pressure, Beck becomes one of the worst quarterbacks in the country, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns and producing a 58.8 NFL passer rating.

Looking at Ohio State

Offensive Star: Jeremiah Smith, Receiver

Likely the best player in college football, Jeremiah Smith is already embarking on his second season with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. With a deep playoff run, Smith should finish right around where he did as a freshman: 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Smith is a physical freak who just begs to be doubled. However, with Carnell Tate on the other side, Smith cannot be doubled every snap. When Smith gets single coverage, he is clinical. On targets beyond 10 yards, Smith has 31 catches for 742 yards and 10 touchdowns. On 43 such targets, Smith has zero drops.

Defensive Star: Arvell Reese, Linebacker/Edge Hybrid

A linebacker who can rush the passer, Reese has put himself firmly in conversations to be the first non-quarterback taken in the 2026 NFL Draft. Reese has 10.0 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks this season. He has 62 total tackles with a pair of pass deflections.

This week's "Arvell Reese is really freaking good" tweet.

Speed. Burst. Violence. What a weapon. pic.twitter.com/fnQ1moA83a

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 1, 2025

Reese’s dynamism makes up for an Ohio State pass rush that lacks the likes of Nick or Joey Bosa or Chase Young – or even the stellar duo of J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer last year. Reese is talented as a blitzer or as a true pass rusher, but he offers ample ability as a true linebacker next to Sonny Styles, too.

X-Factor: Bo Jackson, Running Back

Now over 1,000 yards on the season, Bo Jackson has been a breakout star in his freshman season. Jackson has six games with 100 rushing yards, including a season-high 117 in Ohio State’s rivalry win over Michigan.

As mentioned, Ohio State does not have a premier offensive line. Jackson has created 4.17 yards after contact per attempt this season, forcing 33 missed tackles. Almost 70% of his yardage is after contact.

Miami vs Ohio State History

In five lifetime meetings, Ohio State has two wins, and Miami has two wins. Ohio State vacated the remaining matchup, an on-field 36-24 win back in 2010. The most famous of the previous five matchups was the 2003 National Championship Game, which Ohio State won controversially in double overtime.

Last time these squads squared off, Miami won in pretty dominant fashion 24-6. On the Miami side, Allen Hurns caught two touchdowns. The Buckeyes completed just four passes on the day and had just 209 yards of total offense.

Last Five Cotton Bowls

This is the 90th iteration of the Cotton Bowl, and the fifth CFP installment of the Cotton Bowl. It has been contested every season since 1936.

This is Ohio State’s fifth Cotton Bowl appearance and, somehow, its third appearance in a row. Ohio State has previously won the 1987, Dec. 2017, and Jan. 2025 Cotton Bowls with a loss in the Dec. 2023 edition. Miami is 1-0 in the Cotton Bowl, setting a Cotton Bowl record with a 43-point win over Texas back in January of 1991.

Last season, Ohio State clinched its trip to the National Championship Game with a 28-14 win over Texas. Quinshon Judkins scored twice for the future National Champions, and both TreVeyeon Henderson and Jack Sawyer had 75-plus-yard touchdowns. For Texas, Jaydon Blue scored both touchdowns.