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College Football Upset Picks Week 14 – Expert Predictions for Rivalry Week

Darren Cooper

By Darren Cooper in College Football

Published:


Nov 22, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws a pass during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
  • After three straight even weeks, I’ve got one more chance to win big with my college football upset picks for Week 14.
  • It’s rivalry week, which means emotions will be running high. I’m looking at a pair of SEC tilts.
  • I’ve got all the details on the best college football upset picks for rivalry week.

Beating your rival can make your whole season, and for me, I am looking to finish strong with my college football upset picks for Week 14.

I’m still over .500 for the season, but barely. This week, I am counting on emotion to push a few underdogs to victory. We’ve got bowl games at stake, coaching futures and old-fashioned feuds.

Sounds good to me. Check out my upset picks for Week 14.

CFB Upset Prediction: Ole Miss at Mississippi State +7.5

If you’ve never seen it before, google the Immaculate Deflection, the game-ending missed field goal from this game in 1983. I promise you’ve never seen anything like it.

This game always has some sort of craziness attached to it; this year, it’s As the Kiffin Turns. Kiffin will make his announcement about his future after the game. LSU? Florida? NFL? Who knows? But it has had to be a major distraction to his team.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State is a great 8-3 against the spread. State has won four of the last seven meetings with the spread, with one year a push. Last year, State was getting 26 points and lost by 12 in Oxford. The home crowd in Stark Vegas will make this one close.

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CFB Upset Pick: Texas A&M at Texas +2.5

The Aggies make their first trip to Royal Stadium since 2010 and are unbeaten, but none of that will mean a thing if they can’t beat Texas.

Texas is a pitiful 2-7-1 against the spread, but has won five of its last six games straight up. Texas can’t run the ball at all, and Arch Manning has been underwhelming.

But this is what college football is all about! A&M goes on the road against a team that we all know is talented. The place will be bananas. Texas has won the last two meetings and won both against the spread. A&M hasn’t covered the spread in eight of its last nine November games.

Besides, when you watch this one, and there are 100,000 people in burnt orange screaming on every play, don’t you feel like you want to be on their side? I do.

CFB Upset Pick: Cincinnati +4 at TCU

I give TCU a lot of credit. When they blew that game to Iowa State, I thought they were done. But they came back last week and upset Houston.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati, which at one point looked like the best team in the Big 12, has lost three in a row, but look who they played: Arizona, Utah and BYU.

The stats show Cincinnati has a better scoring offense and a better defense. They have a better running game – TCU is a pass-happy outfit. Bearcats QB Brendan Sorsby has thrown 24 touchdowns. I think Cincinnati is just better.

CFB Upset Pick: UCLA +21.5 at USC

I think it’s just too many points. In the last 10 meetings, the margin of victory has been over 21.5 points only twice, and once it was 22 points.

USC has won four of the last six meetings. They’re definitely better than UCLA. Trojans QB Jayden Maiava has thrown for 3,174 yards and 21 touchdowns. Last week, somehow…somehow, UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava completed 16 passes for a grand total of 69 yards against Washington.

I think USC will be mad after losing to Oregon last week, but I think UCLA will give them a fight. That extra .5 is enough for me, because I can’t see this being more than 21 points in USC’s favor. That’s just not how this rivalry goes.

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Darren Cooper

Darren has been covering the world of sports since 1998. His grandfather had a special 'system' to bet on the ponies, but the secrets of that system have been lost to time. He loves betting the under, thinks homefield advantage is worth more than 3 points nowadays and always stays within his means.

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