College Football Upset Predictions Week 5 – Top Underdog Picks Today

• After two good weeks picking college football upsets, we’re back with our upset picks for Week 5.
• Does Syracuse still have the good vibes after its upset win over Clemson? And wait until you see this fact about Mississippi State.
• Read on for my Week 5 college football upset predictions.

I’ve hit on six upset picks the last two weeks, if you want to include calling Tulsa over Oklahoma State. Sometimes, the key to an upset pick in college football isn’t so much what team is going to win, but finding out what team is in a bad state of mind and is finding ways to lose.

I was right about Virginia Tech falling apart two weeks ago and Clemson last week. I don’t see any other programs teetering and about to can their coach (well, I do, it’s UAB, but they’re off this week), so we’re going to go back to looking at teams getting a lot of points at home. College football is an emotional game, and the crowd can often carry teams to upset wins.

Let’s go with my top underdog picks for today.

CFB Upset Predictions: Syracuse +4 vs Duke

I am buying Syracuse after what it did to Clemson last week because I think the emotions carry over for them at home, and I’m not sold on Duke being that good.

The Orange are 2-1-1 against the spread this season and 2-0 at home. Duke is 1-3 against the spread. The big question for Syracuse is that they lost starting QB Steven Angeli to an torn Achilles in the win over Clemson, but LSU transfer Rickie Collins came in and performed well.

Duke has won its last 10 games in September as a favorite, but I think QB Darian Mensah has underwhelmed, and Syracuse is super confident.

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CFB Upset Predictions: Washington +8.0 vs Ohio State

Washington has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in September against ranked teams. The Huskies have won 22 in a row at home, the second-longest streak in the nation behind Georgia.

The last time we all paid attention to Ohio State, they were scuffing along against Texas, winning 14-7. Remember, it was close with Ohio two weeks ago for a while. It’s not that I don’t think Ohio State is good, clearly they are, it’s the fact that this will be their first road game and first road test of the season.

Washington is more than capable of at least keeping this close. Huskies QB Demond Williams had 5 TDs against Washington State. Maybe a backdoor cover?

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CFB Upset Prediction: Tennessee at Mississippi State +7.5

Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last six games against ranked opponents. Doesn’t that ring your cowbell?

This is Tennessee’s first trip to Stark Vegas since 2012. I worry about their mindset after the tough loss to Georgia two weeks ago. Teams lose close games like that and it becomes their identity.

The Bulldogs took down No. 12 Arizona State at home a few weeks ago. They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games and covered five in a row. And back in 2012, they beat Tennessee. You know something crazy will happen Saturday. It might be in Starkville.

CFB Upset Prediction: UTEP +3.5 vs Louisiana Tech

It’s Homecoming for UTEP down in the Sun Bowl, and the weather forecast is for rain and lots of points.

La. Tech is 3-1 and 4-0 against the spread, but UTEP QB Malachi Nelson is starting to figure some things out. He was the Gatorade Player of the Year in California in 2021, went to USC, and then Boise State. Now he’s getting a chance to play. He threw for 404 in the Miners loss to La-Monroe last week.

La. Tech is 9-1 in last 10 games against the spread, and 4-0 this season, and I think the tide is going to turn here. I think the rain makes it hard for La. Tech.