USC vs TCU Prediction, Line & Player Opt Outs – Alamo Bowl

• USC is a 6.5-point favorite over TCU in Tuesday’s Valero Alamo Bowl
• Both teams will be without several key starters on both sides of the ball
• See my USC vs TCU prediction, plus the latest betting line and opt outs

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Opt outs are threatening to ruin another college football Bowl Game. In this case, it’s the Valero Alamo Bowl, where both USC (9-3) and TCU (8-4) will field rosters that look nothing like the programs that played during the regular season.

To make matters worse for the Horned Frogs, they’re also dealing with a shorthanded coaching staff. Online sportsbooks believe the losses are too much for TCU to overcome, listing the Trojans as big favorites in the college football odds.

The action is set for 6 pm PT / 9 pm ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my USC vs TCU prediction, plus the latest betting line and opt outs for the Valero Alamo Bowl.

USC vs TCU Prediction

I’m avoiding the spread market altogether and betting under 56.5 points as my USC vs TCU prediction. I believe the offensive losses will be too severe for both sides to overcome, leading to sloppy, inefficient play.

Let’s start with the Horned Frogs. I’ll list all of their significant opt outs and injuries below, but what you need to know right now is starting QB Josh Hoover is out, as is top receiver Jordan Dwyer, and lead back Kevorian Barnes.

In Hoover’s place will be senior Ken Seals, who has thrown 19 total passes over the last two years. Seals does have previous starting experience at Vanderbilt, but the results weren’t glowing. He completed less than 59% of his throws over his final two seasons and was picked off 22 times in three years.

Dwyer, meanwhile, was responsible for 24% of TCU’s receiving touchdowns this season, while Barnes led the team in carries before suffering an injury in early November.

Also working against the Horned Frogs is a new play caller. OC Kendal Briles is off to South Carolina, leaving tight ends coach Mitch Kirsch in charge of play-calling duties.

It wasn’t like TCU’s offense was a world beater even at full strength. They ranked 93rd in early-down EPA and 104th in red-zone scoring percentage. Imagine the drop-off now, with all the current issues in front of them.

As for USC, the offensive outlook is just as bleak for the one-time CFB Bracket contender. The good news is that QB Jayden Maiava is expected to start, fresh off a 3,400-yard, 23 TD season. The bad news is that he’ll be operating behind a depleted offensive line and will be missing the bulk of his best skill position players.

The Trojans could be down three-fifths of their starting offensive line, while none of their top-three pass catchers will suit up. They’re also missing one of their top-two running backs, making offense incredibly tough to come by.

USC Offense

USC’s season-long metrics look fantastic, but they all came with the program at full strength. Now, with a shaky offensive line and a dearth of skill position talent, it’s impossible to project them for an efficient offensive day even if Maiava is under center.

Ultimately, there’s too much talent on the sidelines for this game to shoot out. Yes, there are also several defensive opt outs we’ll get to below, but not enough for this game to exceed 56.5 points.

USC vs TCU Line

The best place to bet the under is currently at FanDuel. Their total is a full point lower than other commercial books like BetMGM, and it’s still available at -110 odds.

As for the other USC vs TCU lines, the Trojans are currently listed as -5.5 to -6.5 favorites depending on where you look, while Bet365 is the sportsbook to visit if you want to bet on the Horned Frogs to pull off the upset.

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Odds as of Dec. 30 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, unders were a profitable bet down the stretch in Trojans games. That side of the total hit in five of USC’s last seven outings, while the under was 3-2 in TCU’s final five contests.

USC vs TCU Opt Outs

Onto the long list of names showing up in the college football opt outs tracker. TCU’s biggest opt outs are Hoover, Dwyer and Barnes on offense, and safeties Bud Clark and Kylin Jackson on defense.

USC is expected to be without offensive linemen Alani Noa, Elijah Paige and Killian O’Connor. Leading receiver Ja’Kobi Lane is out, as well as Biltnikoff winning wideout Makai Lemon, tight end Lake McRee and RB Waymond Jordan.

Defensively, the Trojans will be missing Edge Anthony Lucas, linebacker Eric Gentry and DB’s Kamari Ramsey, Bishop Fitzgerald and Baylon Conley.