By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
The Northwestern Wildcats (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) head west for a Friday night showdown against the USC Trojans (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. It’s the first meeting between these programs since the 1996 Rose Bowl, and online sportsbooks have installed the Trojans as big home favorites in the college football odds.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET / 6:00 pm PT from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage.
This is a classic letdown spot for USC. The Trojans just survived a brutal four-game stretch that included road trips to Illinois, Notre Dame, and Nebraska, sandwiched around a home battle with Michigan. They escaped Lincoln with a 21-17 win last week, but only after Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola went down injured in the second half.
Now they return home to face a perceived weaker opponent on a short week. That’s a recipe for disaster.
Northwestern thrives in these spots. The Wildcats are 5-2-1 ATS this season, building their identity on disciplined defense and ball control. They rank 13th nationally in scoring defense (16.8 PPG), allowing fewer than 17 points per game for just the second time since 2000.
The biggest concern is QB Preston Stone’s road splits. He’s thrown just one touchdown pass compared to six interceptions in away games. His passer efficiency drops from 145.4 in wins to 78.2 in losses. But Northwestern doesn’t need Stone to be great. They control the clock better than almost anyone (33:22 time of possession, sixth in FBS), and they don’t beat themselves with mistakes. Just 228 penalty yards all season? That’s third in FBS.
USC’s offense is explosive at 39.8 points per game (eighth nationally), and they’ll lean on freshman RB King Miller. He’s averaging 7.83 yards per carry (best among FBS freshmen) and has rushed for 119 yards per game since his breakout against Michigan. But the Trojans just managed 337 total yards against Nebraska. Maiava completed only nine of 23 passes for 135 yards in his worst performance of the season.
The trends point towards the underdog. USC is 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games. The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall and knocked off Penn State as 21-point underdogs back in October.
Linebacker Mac Uihlein leads all FBS linebackers with four interceptions, and Northwestern’s front seven will make this game ugly. USC wins, but the Wildcats’ ball control and defensive identity should keep it within two touchdowns.
Based on my prediction, I’m backing the Wildcats to cover the large number.
The letdown spot is perfect, and additional trends back it up. Northwestern is 4-0 ATS after games allowing less than 170 yards passing and are 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records. USC? They’re 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win. That’s a killer stat for a team coming off an emotional victory.
The common opponent angle favors Northwestern. Both teams faced Nebraska recently, and the Wildcats actually looked more competitive despite losing 28-21. USC trailed 13-6 at halftime and only pulled away after Raiola went down. If Nebraska’s QB stays healthy, the Cornhuskers probably win that game.
Griffin Wilde is Northwestern’s engine, accounting for 41.3% of the team’s receiving yards (most in power conferences). He’s had at least 50 receiving yards in seven of eight games. RB Caleb Komolafe has been clutch on third down, ranking second among power conference backs with 189 rushing yards in those situations.
USC’s defense is elite in the red zone. They rank second nationally allowing opponents to score just 64% of the time inside the 20. They’ve got six takeaways in the red zone this season (second in FBS). But Northwestern’s approach is built for this. They dominate time of possession (sixth in FBS at 33:22 per game), which limits the number of drives USC gets to use that explosive offense.
Maiava has been spectacular at home this season, posting a 211.6 passer rating (third in FBS). He hasn’t been sacked once at the Coliseum. But he’s coming off his worst game, and Northwestern’s defense prides itself on making games dirty and uncomfortable. This is exactly the type of game where the Wildcats excel.
I predict USC wins this game. But getting 14.5 points with a team that controls the clock, doesn’t beat itself, and has the defensive identity to frustrate an explosive offense on a short week? That’s the play.
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The USC vs Northwestern line opened with the Trojans favored by 15 or 14.5 points, depending on the book. Sharp money has come in on the Wildcats to tighten the odds by a couple of points. USC still has a massive 85.7% implied win probability based on their -600 moneyline.
If you’re betting Northwestern, make sure you shop around for the best number. BetRivers is hanging +14.5 (-120), which gives you the extra half-point over the key 14 number. That’s worth the juice.
USC backers can find -13.5 (-115) at MGM, which gets you through both the 14 and the key field goal number. But I’m not touching the Trojans in this spot.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 4 hours ago