UTSA vs USF Prediction, Spread & Picks for Thursday’s College Football Matchup

• USF is a 13.5-point favorite over UTSA on Thursday in a game with a total of 67.5
• The Roadrunners grade out 125th in run defense, and 129th in tackling per PFF
• See below for the UTSA vs USF prediction, spread and picks for Thursday’s college football matchup

The Thursday night college football spotlight belongs to the American conference, as UTSA (4-4, 2-2 American) visits USF (6-2, 3-1 American). The Bulls are fresh off heartbreaking loss to Memphis that knocked them out of the AP top-25, but online sportsbooks are expecting them to bounce back per the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET from Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my UTSA vs USF prediction, plus the spread and my favorite picks.

UTSA vs USF Prediction

This matchup is going to be decided in the trenches. Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, that’s an area where they are overmatched on both sides of the ball.

UTSA has been running the ball down their opponent’s throats this season, but that’s not going to happen against the Bulls. USF enters play yielding only 3.6 yards per carry, and just stymied a potent Memphis rushing attack. The Bulls held the Tigers, one of the nation’s top rushing teams, to 53 yards on the ground through three quarters before blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead.

USF is top-40 in yards allowed per play, and 31st in defensive EPA / play. While their opponent has played a cupcake schedule of mostly Group of Five programs, the Bulls have been battling contenders in the CFP odds. They opened their season with three straight games versus ranked opponents, winning twice. They held both Boise State and Florida below 17 points, and my UTSA vs USF prediction is they limit the Roadrunners to 13 points or less in the first half.

USF Defensive Stats

UTSA is getting plenty of love thanks to its offense ahead of this game, but I’m not convinced. They’ve run up massive totals on Tulane and Rice in the last few weeks, but there’s plenty of games where the offense has no showed against much lesser competition.

There was a 17 point outing versus North Texas’ 79th ranked defense, and a 21 point night versus a Temple program that yields 30+ to everyone else. Owen McCown has been clean the last three games, but let’s not forget he has multiple 2 INT games on his 2025 resume, and has just as many games with a completion percentage below 60% (4), as he does above 65% (4).

With USF favored by two touchdowns, I can absolutely envision a scenario where they call off the defensive dogs after jumping ahead by multiple scores. That’s why I’m playing the UTSA first half team total under, when the Bulls starters are guaranteed to be on the field.

UTSA vs USF Spread

As for the full game total, that number sits as high as 68.5 over at DraftKings. DK also has the shortest odds on the USF moneyline at -535, while you can bet the Bulls -13.5 at Bet365 if you like them to cover. If you’re rolling with UTSA against the spread, make sure to visit BetMGM, as they’re still hanging a +14.

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Per the college football public betting trends, under 68.5 is the most popular wager on the board. That side of the total is drawing 70% of the over/under tickets as of Wednesday night.

UTSA vs USF Picks

When it comes to the Bulls offense, Byrum Brown is a one-man show. The dual threat QB will surpass the 2,000 passing yards mark on Thursday, and has carried the ball 70 times more than any of his teammates.

Brown’s rushing volume has been through the roof over USF’s last four games, as he’s averaged 18 carries and over 115 rushing yards per start. He’s in prime position for another big day with his legs versus the Roadrunners, who are dreadful against the run.

UTSA allows nearly 5.0 yards per carry and 166 rushing yards per contest. They grade out 125th in rush defense per PFF, and 129th in tackling. I’ll take Brown over 70.5 rushing yards as my favorite UTSA vs USF pick, and will likely sprinkle a bit on Brown 2+ TD at +160 odds.