Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Line, Pick & Prediction for SEC Rivalry Week

• Vanderbilt is still alive for the CFP
• Tennessee has not lost this game since 2018
• Read below for my Vanderbilt vs Tennessee pick and prediction as well as the odds for this rivalry game

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The No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (9-2, 5-2 in the SEC) head to Knoxville to face the No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers (8-3, 4-3 in the SEC). Neyland Stadium will play host to a 3:30 PM ET kickoff on Nov. 29. ESPN will handle the broadcast.

I have locked in my Vanderbilt vs Tennessee pick and prediction and also provided the updated betting lines for this CFP elimination game.

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Line

The books have Tennessee as a slight favorite for this SEC rivalry. The Vanderbilt vs Tennessee line for the total is set between 66 and 66.5 points. Over bettors can get over 66 at Fanatics for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 66.5 at Caesars for -108 odds.

Tennessee bettors can get the Volunteers at -2 on the spread (-122 odds at BetRivers) or -135 on the moneyline (ESPN Bet). For Vanderbilt bettors, take the Commodores +3 on BetMGM (-110 odds) or +125 on the moneyline at BetRivers.

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Pick

• Under 66.5

Here is the primary reason why I am taking 66.5 in this rivalry game:

• Despite the over being the optimal pick in Vanderbilt games (7-4), only one conference game has exceeded 66.5 points on Vandy’s slate: its 45-38 win (in overtime) over Auburn. Tennessee had some exceptionally high-scoring games early in the season, but the under has hit in four of UT’s last six games.
• In SEC road games, Vanderbilt has scored 25.3 points per game. This is significantly lower than the Commodores’ season average of 38.9 points per game.
• Tennessee’s elite 42.3 points per game for the full season is a less staggering 33.3 points per game over its last three contests. In SEC home games, Tennessee has scored 34.0 points per game.

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Prediction

• Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 28

I am predicting Tennessee to win a close game, perhaps one that comes down to the final drive. Vanderbilt would have to wait for the program’s first 10-win season.

Vanderbilt’s 2025

After a big step forward in 2024, Clark Lea has the Commodores on the CFP fringe. With a win and a couple of upsets, Vandy will be CFP-bound. Vandy has three wins over then-top-15 teams, including a 24-point clobbering at then-No.11 South Carolina.

Possibly a Heisman finalist, Diego Pavia has been the engine that has pushed Vanderbilt to its best season in school history (with one more win). Pavia leads the SEC in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, yards per attempt, and passing efficiency. He has also added a team-best 661 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

Pavia leads a three-headed rushing attack. Sedrick Alexander is the closer of the two backs to being an every-down player. He averages just over eight rushes per game, and he is tied with Pavia for the team lead in rushing touchdowns. Makhilyn Young is the most dynamic of Vanderbilt’s main rushers as he has averaged a ridiculous 9.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns.

Vandy has three main weapons in the receiving game. First is the stalwart tight end, Eli Stowers. Likely one of the first three tight ends off the board in April, Stowers leads the team in catches (57) and yards (705). He has a sixth sense for being where Pavia needs him to be.

Joining Stowers is the receiver duo of Tre Richardson and Junior Sherrill. Richardson is the big-play threat of the group, averaging just shy of 18 yards per catch and scoring five touchdowns. Sherrill is a go-to in the red zone, leading the Commodores with seven touchdown grabs.

Diego Pavia with the 71-yard TD pass to Tre Richardson on Senior Day 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IqqR1UAWJF

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 22, 2025

On defense, watch for Miles Capers. Capers leads the Commodores with 9.5 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks. He has deflected two passes and forced a fumble as well.

Tennessee’s 2025

A year after making the CFP, Tennessee took a step in the wrong direction. Even with a win over Vanderbilt, Tennessee will be ranked in the mid-teens and out of the CFP this year. The Vols went 8-0 in unranked games, but they have yet to beat a ranked team this year. Any win over Georgia, Alabama, or Oklahoma almost certainly would have put the Vols into serious CFP contention.

One thing to note about Tennessee's win over Ms State: True freshman tight end Jack Van Dorselaer made key blocks on Joey Aguilar's game tying TD run and on DeSean Bishop's TD run in overtime pic.twitter.com/JAj3gfZYRc

— zach ragan (@zachTNT) September 28, 2025

Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar has been one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC. He averages a robust 285.9 yards per game, pacing the conference with 3,145 passing yards. He has 26 total touchdowns with 10 interceptions on the season.

Sophomore DeSean Bishop has been exceptional of late. In his last five games, he has three multi-touchdown outings and a pair of 100-yard games against SEC competition. Bishop leads the Vols with 12 rushing touchdowns.

On the outside, the Tennessee passing attack runs through a trio of receivers, led by likely top-75 pick Chris Brazzell. Brazzell leads the Vols with 926 yards and eight touchdowns. Braylon Staley is Tennessee’s possession receiver, hailing in 58 passes at a strong 13.3 yards-per-catch clip.

Tennessee has three different defenders with an SEC-leading three forced fumbles this season. As a team, Tennessee has forced 16 fumbles and eight interceptions. Watch for cornerback Colton Hood, who is likely to be a Day 2 pick. He has two defensive touchdowns and 4.5 tackles for a loss.

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee, Last Five Matchups

Tennessee has owned this rivalry, posting a 79-33-5 record even after vacating wins in 2019 and 2020. Vanderbilt has not won since 2018, and Tennessee is looking for its third distinct five-game winning streak over Vandy since 2000 with a win on Saturday (not including its vacated wins).

Last season, the CFP-bound Vols overcame a 14-0 and 17-7 deficit to win 36-23 in their last win of the season. Future UCLA transfer Nico Iamaleava accounted for 299 total yards and four touchdowns, including a pair to future Raider Dont’e Thornton. On the Vandy side, Diego Pavia struggled with an 8-for-17 day with a touchdown and a pick.