Villanova vs Tarleton State Prediction, Picks and Odds – FCS Playoff Quarterfinal

• Tarleton State enters as a 12.5-point home favorite over Villanova in Saturday’s FCS playoff quarterfinal at Memorial Stadium
• The Texans lead the FCS with 44.1 points per game and boast a +30 turnover margin that’s the best in the nation
• Keep reading for the best Villanova vs Tarleton State prediction and picks for this FCS quarterfinal matchup

The FCS playoff quarterfinals bring a massive matchup Saturday when the 12th-seeded Villanova Wildcats travel to face the fourth-seeded Tarleton State Texans. The Wildcats enter as heavy underdogs against a Tarleton State squad that’s been dominant at home all season.

My Villanova vs Tarleton State prediction favors the home team to cover the 12.5-point spread in this FCS quarterfinal. The Texans’ explosive offense and elite turnover margin create multiple paths to a comfortable victory. Below we break down the best picks, predictions and odds for this playoff showdown.

Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, December 13 from Memorial Stadium in Stephenville, Texas. ESPN has the broadcast.

Villanova vs Tarleton State Prediction: Texans Cover at Home

The numbers are lopsided. Tarleton State holds decisive advantages across virtually every category, starting with their explosive offense that averages 44.1 points per game compared to Villanova’s 31.0.

Quarterback Victor Gabalis has been outstanding for the Texans. He’s thrown for 2,687 yards with 28 touchdowns against just five interceptions. His top target Peyton Kramer has hauled in 50 catches for 920 yards and seven scores, while the rushing attack averages 205.1 yards per game despite dealing with injuries all season.

Villanova counters with quarterback Pat McQuaide, who’s been careful with the football. He’s completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,744 yards with 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Wildcats lean on their ground game, averaging 177.8 rushing yards per contest behind Ja’briel Mace’s 767 yards.

The biggest mismatch is the turnover battle. Tarleton State’s +30 turnover margin leads the FCS by 12 over second-place North Dakota State. The Texans have intercepted 23 passes this season, creating short fields and defensive scores.

Villanova has been careful with the ball, committing just five turnovers all season. But the Wildcats haven’t faced a defense this aggressive. Tarleton State’s secondary feeds off creating chaos, and one or two Villanova mistakes could blow this game open quickly.

The situational setup favors the home team. Road underdogs have historically struggled to cover in FCS playoff games, and Villanova is making a long trip for a high-stakes elimination contest. Tarleton State has been dominant at Memorial Stadium all season.

Villanova’s recent form is concerning. That 14-7 grinder at Lehigh in the second round and the overtime escape against Stony Brook show they can be vulnerable against quality competition. The Wildcats were scoreless at halftime against Lehigh, and getting blanked early against a 44-point-per-game offense would be a problem.

• Pick: Tarleton State -12.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

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Villanova vs Tarleton State Over/Under Pick

The Over is the play here. Tarleton State’s offense is too explosive to be held down for four quarters, and the Texans convert in the red zone at an 87.1% clip when they get scoring opportunities.

Clear weather conditions in Stephenville eliminate any environmental factors that could suppress scoring. The fast turf surface at Memorial Stadium helps sustained drives. Villanova’s defense allows 20.2 points per game, but they haven’t faced an offense with Tarleton State’s balance and playmaking ability.

The sharp money agrees. While 53.2% of tickets lean toward the Over, a more telling 63.3% of the total handle is on the higher-scoring outcome. That gap means bigger bettors see value in the Over.

Villanova will need to score to keep pace. The Wildcats can’t rely on their defense to hold Tarleton State under 30 points. That means Pat McQuaide will have to air it out more than usual, which could lead to more scoring opportunities for both teams.

• Pick: Over 53.5 (-112 at BetMGM)

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The Texans have the offensive firepower to pull away in the second half. Their ability to control field position through turnovers while maintaining offensive balance gives them multiple paths to a comfortable victory and a spot in the FCS semifinals.

Villanova vs Tarleton State Odds

• Moneyline: Tarleton State -461 | Villanova +340
• Spread: Tarleton State -12.5 (-110) | Villanova +12.5 (-109)
• Total: Over/Under 53.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)

Odds as of December 13. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

The spread has moved significantly since opening, jumping from Tarleton State -9.5 to the current -12.5. That three-point adjustment tells you where the sharp money landed. The moneyline tightened from around -300 to -461, with 96.4% of the total handle backing the Texans.