Week 1 AP Poll Rankings vs National Championship Odds

• Ohio State takes No. 1 in AP Poll with matching championship favoritism at +600
• Alabama drops to No. 21, but oddsmakers still give them the ninth-best title odds
• See the biggest gaps between AP rankings and National Championship odds after Week 1

The Week 2 AP Poll dropped Tuesday, and the disconnect between where media members ranked teams and where oddsmakers priced them tells an interesting story about perception versus reality.

After a chaotic opening weekend that saw four top-10 teams lose, let’s examine where the biggest gaps exist between poll position and championship probability.

Week 1 AP Poll vs National Championship Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 2, 2025. AP Poll rankings from Week 2.

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Where AP Rankings and Oddsmakers Disagree Most

The Alabama Situation

Alabama tumbled from No. 8 to No. 21 after losing 31-17 to Florida State. Yet at +1500, they still have the ninth-best national championship odds on the board – ahead of 12 teams ranked above them.

The market’s message is clear: one bad game against a motivated FSU team doesn’t erase Alabama’s talent advantage. Their 6.3% implied probability to win it all is significantly higher than teams like Miami (4.3% at +2200), despite the Hurricanes being ranked 16 spots higher.

Whether that’s justified is debatable, but the gap between No. 21 and ninth-best odds is the widest disconnect on the board.

Miami at No. 5

The Hurricanes jumped from unranked to No. 5 after their 27-24 win over Notre Dame. Their championship odds sit at +2200, which gives them a 4.3% implied probability.

That puts Miami behind several lower-ranked teams in championship odds. Oregon (No. 6) and Notre Dame (No. 9) both sit at +1300, while Clemson (No. 8) is at +1400. Even No. 21 Alabama has significantly better odds at +1500.

The market views Miami’s jump to No. 5 as poll momentum rather than a reflection of true championship equity.

Georgia and Texas: Better Odds Than Rankings Suggest

Georgia sits fourth in the poll but has the third-best championship odds at +700, trailing only Ohio State (+600) and Penn State (+650). The Bulldogs dominated Marshall 45-7 with new quarterback Gunner Stockton throwing four touchdowns.

Texas dropped to No. 7 after losing to Ohio State, but their +750 odds make them the fourth-most likely champion. The market believes Arch Manning’s struggles were more about facing an elite defense on the road than fundamental issues.

Both teams have better championship odds than their poll position would suggest.

Poll Inflation: South Carolina, Illinois, Arizona State

These three teams cracked the top 12 in the AP Poll, but their championship odds tell a different story:

– South Carolina (No. 10): +7000 odds (1.4% chance)
– Illinois (No. 11): +15000 odds (0.7% chance)
– Arizona State (No. 12): +10000 odds (1.0% chance)

For perspective, these odds are significantly longer than teams ranked much lower. No. 15 Michigan (+3000) has better odds than all three, while No. 19 Texas A&M (+4000) and No. 20 Ole Miss (+5000) have better odds than South Carolina despite being ranked 9-10 spots lower.

Other Notable Gaps in AP Rankings

LSU (No. 3): Their +1000 odds rank fifth overall, behind Georgia despite being ranked higher. The market sees them a tier below the Ohio State/Penn State/Georgia group despite their impressive win at Clemson.

Oregon and Notre Dame: Both sit at +1300 despite Oregon being ranked No. 6 and Notre Dame No. 9. The oddsmakers see them as equals regardless of poll position.

Florida State (No. 14): At +12000, the Seminoles have just a 0.8% implied probability despite their dominant win over Alabama. The market remains skeptical about their overall roster depth and consistency.

What This Means for Bettors

The biggest takeaway is that oddsmakers aren’t as reactive as poll voters. While the AP Poll saw massive swings based on Week 1 results, championship odds moved more conservatively.

If you believe in talent over small samples, Alabama at +1500 might offer value despite their poor ranking. They have better odds than 12 teams ranked ahead of them for a reason.

Georgia at +700 looks strong relative to being ranked fourth, while teams like South Carolina and Illinois appear to be poll darlings with minimal championship equity.

The gap between perception (polls) and probability (odds) is where betting value often lives. Week 1 created overreactions in the rankings, but the betting markets kept their composure.