Week 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Check out our expert Week 12 college football picks against the spread for Saturday.
• We went 2-1 last weekend and are now 24-12 on our CFB ATS picks this season
• Below, see expert Week 12 college football picks against the spread, plus key betting trends

Coming off another profitable 2-1 weekend with our college football spread picks, three matchups stand out for a loaded Week 12 slate. The numbers point to one road favorite and two underdogs that present betting value for Saturday’s CFB action.

Our Week 12 CFB picks include an SEC powerhouse poised for a statement win, a Big Ten underdog with elite defensive metrics, and a Big-12 team getting far too many points. We’ve uncovered unique matchup edges and trends that suggest some surprising results could be in store.

Without further ado, here are my Week 12 college football picks against the spread for Saturday.

Week 12 CFB ATS Picks

Three games on this Week 13 slate stand out from a betting perspective. LSU looks ready to roll against a banged-up Florida defense, Nebraska brings elite defensive numbers into USC, and Utah’s getting double digits despite their track record in big spots.

Here’s a breakdown of why I like all three of these teams in my Week 12 spread picks.

LSU vs Florida Odds

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All odds as of November 22nd at ESPN Sportsbook. Visit the top college football betting apps for CFB against the spread betting.

Pick #1: LSU (-4) (at Florida)

The Tigers head to the Swamp ready to make a statement after their loss to Alabama. LSU has flat-out owned this rivalry, winning and covering five straight meetings against Florida – a trend that should continue this weekend. The betting market agrees, with 72% of early money backing the Tigers to extend their dominance in this series.

Garrett Nussmeier remains one of the SEC’s most dynamic quarterbacks, ranking second in passing yards despite some turnover issues. His top targets Kyren Lacy (46 catches, 697 yards) and Aaron Anderson (39 catches, 641 yards) match up perfectly against a Florida secondary that just lost starting cornerback Jason Marshall for the season.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1723876543219826789

The SP+ model reinforces the value here, projecting a 33-27 LSU victory. Florida’s defensive struggles extend beyond just the secondary, allowing 27 points per game while particularly struggling against strong passing attacks. With DJ Lagway potentially limited by a hamstring injury, the Gators’ offense will struggle to keep pace.

LSU’s offensive firepower against this depleted Florida defense should lead to a multi-score victory. The Tigers average 30.6 points per game and should find success through the air against a vulnerable Gators secondary that’s shown no signs of improvement.

Nebraska vs USC Odds

Pick #2: Nebraska +7.5 (at USC)

Nebraska brings tremendous value as road underdogs against USC. The Cornhuskers’ defense ranks 18th nationally in scoring (19.1 PPG), consistently shutting down more explosive offenses than USC’s this season. This defensive dominance includes holding opponents to just a 49% completion percentage, best in the Big 10.

Sharp money clearly sees the value – this line has already moved from +9.5 to +7.5. Nebraska’s impressive 6-3 ATS record in conference play shows their ability to compete in tough environments. Even more telling, they’ve covered in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs against non-ranked teams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmK_Q8hxzFc

Dana Holgorsen’s addition as offensive coordinator could provide the spark Nebraska needs. Meanwhile, USC continues to struggle in close games, going 4-8 in one-score games since last season and failing to cover in five of their last six November games. Their defense allowing 22.2 points per game raises serious concerns when laying more than a TD.

Between Nebraska’s defensive prowess and USC’s tendency to play down to competition, getting more than seven points feels like stealing. The Cornhuskers have shown they can compete with anyone, nearly upsetting Ohio State recently.

Utah vs Colorado Odds

Pick #3: Utah +11.5 (at Colorado)

My final CFB ats pick backs Utah as double-digit underdogs. While Kyle Whittingham’s team has faced challenges, their defense remains elite – ranking 9th in SP+ and 29th nationally in scoring defense (17.3 PPG). Most impressive is their No. 7 ranking in defensive success rate against dropbacks.

Colorado’s pass-heavy approach (9.5% above average pass rate) plays directly into Utah’s strengths. The Utes rank 18th in passing yards allowed and excel at creating pressure, which could spell trouble for Colorado’s suspect protection schemes. Utah’s defensive line ranks among the nation’s best at generating pressure on standard downs.

https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1725965431278977024

The betting models tell an interesting story, with SP+ projecting just a 3.4-point margin. While Utah has dropped five straight, four were one-possession games – meaning they compete until the final whistle. Their defense has kept them competitive all season, allowing just 175 passing yards per game.

Utah’s defensive excellence and Whittingham’s experience in these situations make double digits too generous. I’m expecting a much closer game than the spread suggests, especially given Utah’s strong track record of performing in hostile environments.

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 24-12 (Last Week: 2-1)