Will Fernando Mendoza Go First Overall? See His 2026 NFL Draft Odds After Heisman Win

• Fernando Mendoza is -165 to go first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft on DraftKings
• The Heisman winner’s NFL Draft odds aren’t as lopsided as you’d expect
• See why scouts are comparing Mendoza to Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff

Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy Saturday night after leading Indiana to its first Big Ten championship since 1967. The 6-foot-5 quarterback dominated the voting after his gutsy performance against Ohio State.

His odds to be first overall pick reflect that. Mendoza sits at -165 on DraftKings for the 2026 NFL Draft, a clear favorite. For a Heisman winner in a weak quarterback class, there’s more doubt than you’d expect.

2026 NFL Draft – Odds to be 1st Pick

Odds as of Dec. 13 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mendoza’s -165 odds translate to a 62% implied probability of going first. That makes him a heavy favorite, but not a lock. There’s still a 38% chance someone else hears their name called first.

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Dante Moore sits in second at +320, roughly a 24% chance. The Oregon quarterback might return to school, which would make Mendoza’s path even clearer. Rueben Bain Jr., an edge rusher from Miami, sits at +650. Teams picking first overall don’t usually pass on quarterbacks for pass rushers, but this class is different.

The Kirk Cousins Comparison

NFL scouts keep comparing Mendoza to Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. Both quarterbacks have had solid careers, but they’re not franchise-altering superstars.

“He’s probably just prime Kirk Cousins, but most teams would love that level of quarterback play,” Dynasty Nerds analyst Christian Williams wrote. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said the Goff/Cousins comparisons might make fans “cringe,” but both have achieved “considerable success in the league.”

The question is whether that’s his ceiling or his floor. Mendoza profiles as a high-floor prospect with a pure pocket passing style. He’s not the most mobile and struggles throwing on the run. You’re not adding designed quarterback runs to your playbook.

Former Super Bowl-winning coach Bruce Arians praised Mendoza’s intangibles. “He possesses every quality you want. His height and build are impressive, and he can throw the ball with incredible precision. Plus, he’s an outstanding leader.”

Outstanding leader doesn’t always translate to first overall pick when scouts are debating your upside. 

Weak 2026 Quarterback Class

The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class lacks a generational talent. We’re talking maybe three legitimate first-round prospects. Mendoza sits atop a class elevated more by lack of competition than dominant ability.

Dante Moore from Oregon sits at +320, but he might return to school. Ty Simpson struggled down the stretch at Alabama and is also considering returning for 2026. If both go back, Mendoza might be the only first-round quarterback in the entire class.

Simpson at +1400 feels too bullish. The history of one-and-done quarterbacks is horrendous, and most of those guys were actually good in their single season. Can’t really say that about Simpson, given the second half of this year.

Teams won’t reach on a quarterback just because they need one when the class is this thin. The 2022 and 2025 drafts proved that teams will wait.

Who Picks First Overall?

The New York Giants currently hold the top spot at 2-11. The Las Vegas Raiders sit at No. 2 with the same record. Strength of schedule determines tiebreakers, with the Giants having faced the weakest slate.

The Giants don’t need a quarterback. They drafted Jaxson Dart in 2025, making them prime trade-down candidates. ESPN’s Field Yates mocked a blockbuster trade where the Giants send the No. 1 pick to the Jets for picks No. 7, No. 18, and a Day 2 selection. The Jets desperately need a quarterback and would likely take Mendoza.

The Raiders need a quarterback just as badly. Geno Smith has been a disaster with 14 picks and a 32.5 QBR. Problem is, they also have the league’s worst offensive line. Bringing in a rookie quarterback with that line is a disaster waiting to happen. They might address the trenches first and grab a QB later.

Mendoza NFL Draft Outlook

Mendoza’s Heisman win backs up the stats. He led the nation with 33 passing touchdowns and completed 71.5% of his passes. His 88-yard game-winning drive against Ohio State proved he can deliver when it matters most. Dynasty Nerds’ scouting report calls him a “pure pocket passer with elite production” who’s NFL-ready.

The -165 number says he’s a heavy favorite, not a lock. The Cousins/Goff comparisons cap his upside, and teams might decide to address other needs if they land the top pick. Mendoza will likely hear his name early in the 2026 NFL Draft. Whether he goes No. 1 depends on who’s picking and if they think a solid starter is worth the top selection in a weak class.