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Cycling Odds: Gerrans Seeks 5th Tour Down Under Win

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Look! It’s the neglected younger sibling of the World Tours — the Tour Down Under (“TDU”).

Starting on January 17 (and ending just six days later), the 2017 Tour Down Under will kick off the cycling season for riders and fans around the world. For most riders and teams, it will be the first opportunity to gauge their current form and work out any issues.

Taking place in Adelaide, South Australia, the Tour Down Under trades the lush green mountains of Europe for the sun-burnt bushlands of Australia. The riders, most of whom are coming out of winter hibernation, will be thrust into the scorching Australian summer for the first World Tour event of the year.

How will they fare? Who are the top contenders? Here are our picks.


Odds to Win the 2017 Tour Down Under:

Simon Gerrans (Orica-BikeExchange): 7/3

Simon Gerrans is the undisputed king of the Tour Down Under, with a record four wins. Over the last five years, Gerrans has won this event three times. He’s able to out-sprint the pure sprinters after a hilly stage and hold his own against the climbers in the medium mountain stages. The lack of extremes in the Tour Down Under works to Gerrans’ advantage.

As an Australian riding for an Australian team, the TDU is a race of special significance for him. While many riders and teams use the Tour Down Under as something of a pre-season warm-up, the Australians target it as if it’s a Grand Tour.

Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe): 7/3

The current World Champion is locked in for the Tour Down Under for the first time in seven years. It’s a big-name draw for the often overlooked race. This will be Sagan’s first World Tour event with his new team, Bora-Hansgrohe, and it’s likely that they’ll be using it to iron out the kinks before the Classics and Grand Tours begin.

Still, Sagan will be looking to win. (Is he ever looking to do anything else?) And the Tour Down Under has everything Sagan needs — sprint finishes, punchy climbs, and a lack of true mountain stages.

Richie Porte (BMC Racing Team): 17/3

Richie Porte has come close to winning the Tour Down Under in the past, but has never managed to seal the deal. His ability to handle the entire length of a Grand Tour has come under question lately and, if that’s true, then the short length of the Tour Down Under should be to his advantage.

He came in second in 2015 and 2016; 2017 might just be the year for the Tasmanian. 

Rohan Dennis (BMC Racing Team): 9/1

The current Australian time trial champion won the Tour Down Under in 2015 (when Gerrans was injured and didn’t race), and he’s one of the favorites to take it in 2017. He’ll be racing alongside teammate Richie Porte, though, so it’s unclear whether he’ll be free to ride his own race or have to work for the team leader. 

Geraint Thomas (Team Sky): 9/1

The Tour Down Under isn’t really a target for Team Sky, and they usually rest their big-name riders until later in the season. This means that riders like Geraint Thomas can shed their obligations as super-domestiques and finally ride for themselves. Without Chris Froome to worry about, Thomas can really come to life as a World Tour contender.


Photo credit: “Tour Down Under: King William Street” by cobber_cpd, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.

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