America! The Odds

It’s the Fourth of July! Independence Day! George Steinbrenner’s birthday! We’re still getting over our hangovers from World Sports Journalists Day, so we’ve decided to set odds on the Fourth of July and the future of America.

Some of these got a little sad, but remember: we spent Sunday drinking bottomless Pepsi and watching every good NBA player leave the Eastern Conference. Things are hurting.

Odds the United States outlasts …

• Hapsburg Empire (392 years): 3/1
• Han Dynasty (426 years): 4/1
• The Roman Republic (482 years): 5/1

The US is still pretty young for a republic, at a sprightly 241 years. Will it outlive some other notable dynasties?

Odds to be President of the United States on July 4th, 2018

• Donald Trump: 1/4
• Mike Pence: 5/1
• FIELD: 25/1

The betting lines on Donald Trump remaining in office for a long time are not favorable. Scandal, old age, and general disinterest seem likely to oust the controversial reality television star.

Odds to be President of the United State on July 4th, 2021

• Donald Trump: 7/2
• Mike Pence: 15/1
• Elizabeth Warren: 15/1
• Paul Ryan: 20/1
• Michelle Obama: 25/1
• Hillary Clinton: 35/1
• Oprah Winfrey: 80/1
• The Rock: 100/1
• Dwayne Johnson: 100/1
• Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: 150/1
• Ivanka Trump: 150/1
• Takuma Sato: 300/1

Odds on the First Independence Day sponsor

• Raytheon: 4/1
• Toyota: 6/1
• Northrop Grumman: 8/1
• ExxonMobil: 10/1
• Quicken Loans: 12/1
• Big Joe’s Bail Bonds: 14/1
• Big Baller Brand: 99/1

Independence Day is one of the biggest remaining events in the US that hasn’t monetized its naming rights. This is obviously a glaring oversight, and one that will be remedied soon.

Odds on the next constitutional amendment

• Electoral College amendment: 5/1
• softening the “natural born Citizen” requirement for eligibility to be President (so that Arnold Schwarzenegger can be president): 6/1
• strengthening the “natural born Citizen” requirement (so that Ted Cruz can’t be): 50/1
• Prohibition on vape juice: 200/1
• Gamer’s Rights Amendment: 250/1

The GOP is currently one state legislature shy of being able to unilaterally amend the Constitution via convention, so it’s not impossible that we’ll see a new amendment in the next few years.

What will be the top-rated TV show on July 4th, 2020

• Planet Earth 3D: 8/1
• a Charlie Sheen vehicle: 9/1
• Wake Up! with Tom and Gisele: 12/1
• Kylie Jenner’s season of The Bachelorette: 14/1
• CNN footage of people crying and men in windbreakers reminding you to remain indoors: 23/2

Media is changing, but television seems to have found some winning formulas to go back to. It’s unlikely that the top-rated show in 2020 will be anything we haven’t seen before in 2017.

America: Over/Unders

• Year when United States overtakes Mexico in world soccer rankings: 2025
• Year when Mexico overtakes the United States in life expectancy: 2030
• Year of the last Super Bowl: 2045
• Year when US population starts to decline: 2037
• How many results will I get if I search “fireworks disaster” on Twitter today: 1,199.5

Odds the last Super Bowl will be played …

• Before the Buffalo Bills win one: 1/1
• Before Kirk Ferentz’s contract at Iowa is over (2026): 4/1
• The same year the US wins Eurovision: 50/1
• It’s already been played: 100/1

Similar to the “Will the US Outlast” bet, nothing lasts forever. Football is coming under some serious heat, what with all the concussions and Toradol and shortening attention spans.

Odds on the next food craze

• Fried chicken and waffles breakfast taco: 10/1
• Popcorn cereal: 12/1
• Triple Stuf Oreos: 18/1
• Pizza where there’s cheese in the crust but not on the top: 25/1
• Pizza where there’s cheese in the crust but the crust is also cheese, somehow: 40/1

Cronuts, what the hell? A couple years ago everything was wrapped in bacon, and then there was deep-fried ice cream. The McRib hasn’t been widely available since Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives and the nation is yearning for a new culinary abomination to go crazy for.

Odds to happen first

• Ten blade razor: 2/3
• Flint, Michigan gets clean water: 7/3
• Rutgers football has a winning season: 9/1