Golden Globes Odds: Early Predictions for 2017

As we head down the final stretch of 2016, we’ll need to start bracing ourselves for the torrential downpour of award ceremonies. We just had the Gotham Awards and the National Board of Review Awards. The ANNIE Awards just released their nominations, and so did the Independent Spirit Awards. And then there’s the Actors/Directors/Screenwriters/Ironworkers/Horse Breeders Guild Awards still to come.

Unless you’re one of the few people nominated for those awards, you can file them under two categories: “who cares?” and “never heard of it”. So let’s turn our attention to an award ceremony that actually matters, The Golden Globes.

The 74th Golden Globes take place on January 8th, and will be hosted by The Tonight Show’s Jimmy Fallon. It’s an interesting choice for a host. Usually, organizers choose a someone with a bit more bite. Ricky Gervais did the job last year, as well as from 2010-2012, while Tina Fey and Amy Poehler paired up to host for the two years in between.

The Globes are famous for picking hosts that will lampoon Hollywood royalty and mock them as they sit uncomfortably in the audience. But it looks like they’re heading in a different direction this year. If Ricky Gervais is the vicious pitbull that will maul its owner, Jimmy Fallon is the adorable puppy who only craves your affection.

And that’s not the only thing changing. The Hollywood Foreign Press announced a tightening of their rules in response to mishaps like The Martian being categorized (and winning!) in the Comedy and Musical category. So expect some more appropriate nominations this year.

The official nominations will be released December 12th, and we’ll update you on the odds as soon as they drop. For now, here are our early predictions.

Odds that Jimmy Fallon will…

Sing/play an instrument: 1/4

Laugh uncontrollably and break character during a skit: 3/2

Perform a regular skit/segment from his show:

Golden Globe Superlatives: 3/2

Celebrity Lip Sync: 3/2

Thank-you Notes: 7/3

Be drinking/drunk: 7/3

Slow Jam the Globes: 4/1

Use the following phrase:

“Oh my gosh”: 1/1

“The greatest thing ever”:  3/2

“Wow!”: 3/2

“Too much fun”: 9/1

Here’s what we’ve gotten so far: NBC announced that Jimmy Fallon will be the host with a video of him botching a light display. It was supposed to read “Golden Globes,” but instead said “Old Globs”. Classic Fallon. Another move that gave us a preview of what to expect? Fallon tweeted: “And I’m really looking forward to spending time with the Hollywood Foreign Press before Donald Trump has them all deported.” 

Odds to win a Golden Globe

Motion Picture Drama:

Silence: 3/1

Fences: 4/1

Manchester by the Sea: 4/1

Moonlight: 4/1

Lion: 19/1

Motion Picture Musical or Comedy:

La La Land: 7/3

Florence Foster Jenkins: 4/1

Sing Street: 4/1

20th Century Women: 4/1

The Lobster: 24/1

Drama Series:

Game of Thrones: 3/1

Stranger Things: 3/1

This Is Us: 4/1 

Westworld: 4/1

The Crown: 9/1

Comedy Series:

Atlanta: 3/2

Transparent: 4/1

Veep: 4/1

Divorce: 19/1

Insecure: 19/1

It used to be that, for a Golden Globes nomination, all you needed was a big name and big budget. But the Hollywood Foreign Press has been trying to steer the awards to more prestigious movies and television. In recent years, Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, and Angelina Jolie have all been snubbed for lesser-known actors.

The trend will likely continue this year.

Photo credit: “Jimmy Fallon” by Celebrityabc, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.