2018 Best Actor Oscar Odds Still Favor Oldman

• Will Gary Oldman continue to bulldoze his way through award season?
• Can Timothee Chalamet beat out the category frontrunner to get the gold (statuette)?
• Does Denzel Washington even stand a chance against his competitors?

Once a week for the past month, we have taken a long look at 2018 Oscars betting props. Last week, we talked Best Actress; the week before that, best bets for a minority win. This week, we revisit Best Actor, which we haven’t scrutinized since the nominations came out.

Gary Oldman has been the shining favorite ever since Darkest Hour was released, his odds barely shifting despite widespread acclaim for several other contenders. Does his performance as Winston Churchill truly have what it takes to earn Oldman a long-awaited Oscar? Will the Academy side with the majority on this one, or will they give the statuette to a newcomer?

Gary Oldman: -2000

Gary Oldman’s first Oscar nomination will likely become his first win. Though we are told time and again — and we remind you time and again — that previous award-show success isn’t always an indication of Oscars success, Oldman has now won five awards for Darkest Hour and most critics agree that this is the performance of his brilliant career.

Oldman has now won five awards for Darkest Hour and most critics agree that this is the performance of his brilliant career.

The Academy loves a good transformation, which is exactly what we get from Oldman qua Churchill. It also loves itself a biopic, and a good historical drama — check and check! Books are listing Oldman’s odds at (-2000), which is about a 95% implied probability – or, in other words, as near to an assumed win as you can get. Their next best bet (Timothee Chalamet) has +900 odds. While we are comfortably on board the Oldman bandwagon — he is certainly your safest bet — underdogs and long-shots shouldn’t be completely overlooked at the Oscars.

Timothee Chalamet

Breakout star Timothee Chalamet has had a good year. Not only did he star alongside Oscar-nominated Saoirse Ronan in the Oscar-nominated Lady Bird, he has now been nominated for Best Actor alongside several giants of thespianism, and his performance was so profound that he is currently enjoying better odds than both Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington.

While betting on Oldman is the safe play, Chalamet’s performance was beautiful, emotional, and heart-wrenching, and he has a sneaky chance of pulling an upset. However, if you are looking for a safer and slightly more profitable underdog to bet on, there is one better …

Daniel Day-Lewis: +1500

After taking on the role of Reynolds Woodcock in Phantom Thread, Daniel Day-Lewis announced that this would be his last performance; he is effectively retired from acting now, leaving the profession after many years as one of Hollywood’s best. As such, one might assume his odds at winning the Oscar would be shorter than +1500, and yet here we are.

It was as though we were watching Daniel Day-Lewis in a past life, embodying the ethos by which he has worked for decades…

We have a hard time saying whether Day-Lewis should be in the position of Timothee Chalamet, and vice versa. Their performances were entirely different. Chalamet’s was a coming-of-age and coming-out tale; Day-Lewis’ was a role perfectly-cut for the method actor. It was as though we were watching Daniel Day-Lewis in a past life, embodying the ethos by which he has worked for decades, playing out his own eccentricities for us on the silver screen.

Will the Academy bestow one final honor on its esteemed colleague? It’s a plausible narrative. Again, if you are looking for an underdog to side with, Daniel Day-Lewis’ swan song is a good one to choose.

Daniel Kaluuya: +1800

In all respects, Daniel Kaluuya deserves his piece of the pie here. He has risen through some very heavy ranks to find his place in the top tier of Hollywood. His overly emotive performance in Get Out was terrifying, but made the outlandish plot — discovering your girlfriend’s family is truly psychotic — feel like a shared experience.

Yet, you can’t consider his performance in a vacuum. It has to be put in context of his competition. This is not likely to be Kaluuya’s year, given the names we find ahead of his.

Should you continue to monitor the young actor’s career? Absolutely. Should you be surprised to read his name in a future Oscars favorites list? Not at all.

Denzel Washington: +3000

Although Denzel Washington remains one of the best actors in the business and gave a solid performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq., his nomination in this category feels a bit like a last-minute fill-in. When James Franco was accused of sexual misconduct (after winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy), the question became who would take his spot in the nomination pool. Denzel’s sleeper performance was not the one we anticipated.

Similarly, we do not anticipate that he’ll earn another Academy Award this year, and neither do books who have his odds at +1800.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised by his appearance as a nominee. His performance was another transformative role, and as we stated, the Academy loves that. Still, unless you’ve simply got cash to burn and are just looking for a match to strike, stay clear of this one.