Bitcoin or … ? Odds, Projections, & Comparisons for the Virtual Currency

Remember a couple years ago when your nerdy brother-in-law was raving about Bitcoin at Thanksgiving dinner and you politely declined his offer to sell you some?

Woops.

The cryptocurrency has absolutely exploded recently. The tech world was atwitter back in 2015 when it hit an all-time high of $333.75 per Bitcoin. Today, that excitement looks hilariously naive, as one Bitcoin is now worth around $10,000. And guess what, it’s probably going higher, maybe a lot higher.

If you’re not familiar with the ins-and-outs of Bitcoin, this isn’t the place to learn. All you need to know for today’s purposes is that it’s real and it’s spectacular.

If you’re having a hard time putting the price of Bitcoin (both current and projected) into perspective, allow us to help you out with a series of comparisons, predictions, and odds that explore what you’ll be able to buy with a few measly units of the virtual money in the near future, and how many Bitcoin it would cost you to ink the likes of Bryce Harper and Kevin Durant to new contracts in the years to come.

What will cost more …

… in Feb. 2018

• Four Super Bowl 52 tickets: 10/1
• One Bitcoin: 1/10

Bitcoin is currently at USD $10,000 and rising. With the average price for Super Bowl 52 tickets expected to be in the $2,500-3,000 range, you should be able to trade a single Bitcoin for four tickets to US Bank Stadium come February. Bitcoin’s price action might slow a little bit, but we’re optimistic that its value will be at least $13,000 per coin come February.

… in Jan. 2020

• One Tesla Roadster: 1/3
• Five Bitcoin: 3/1

In order for five Bitcoin to net you Elon Musk’s electric miracle, Bitcoin’s price would have to jump to over $40,000 a coin. Bitcoin’s price has increased 11 times since the beginning of 2017, but we’re still cautious in predicting that the price will reach such dizzying heights by 2020; you’ll likely have to cough up a few extra Bitcoins to attain the automobile with the fastest 0-60 acceleration time in human history.

… in September 2021

• One rookie NFL player at a league-minimum salary (after CBA renegotiations): 1/28
• Five Bitcoin: 28/1

The league-minimum for rookie salaries is likely to be somewhere around $550,000 – $600,000 under the new CBA. Bitcoin’s price would have to be equal or over $120,000 by 2021 for five Bitcoin to be worth $600,000; possible, but by no means likely. While a lot can and will happen between now and 2021, we wouldn’t bet that a hipster hugging his five-Bitcoin-storing laptop in a coastal coffee shop will be worth more than an NFL rookie. Some things are still sacred.

Bitcoin Over/Unders

• O/U estimated total value of one Bitcoin in summer 2018: $19,999.50
• O/U estimated total value of Bryce Harper’s next contract in 2018 Bitcoin: 25,000 BTC
• O/U estimated total value of Kevin Durant’s next contract in 2019 Bitcoin: 6,399.5 BTC
• O/U Rory McIlroy prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 675.5 BTC
• O/U Jordan Spieth prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 550.5 BTC
• O/U Andy Murray prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 505.5 BTC
• O/U Rafael Nadal prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 480.5 BTC
• O/U Roger Federer prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 475.5 BTC
• O/U Venus Williams prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 150.5 BTC
• O/U Tiger Woods prize money in 2018 converted to summer 2018 Bitcoin: 50.5 BTC

What will increase more (as a percentage) over the next two years

• New York Yankees’ team salary: 21/1
• The price of Bitcoin: 1/21

Considering the Yankees payroll is relatively stable in the $215-230 million dollar range right now (7% change year to year, give or take), and Bitcoin’s price can rise over 20% in a matter of days, we’re much more inclined to bet on Bitcoin’s value percentage increasing more than the Yankees cap number, even if they spend exorbitantly on Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Many Wall Street honchos see Bitcoin’s next major milestone as $20,000/coin, a close to 100% increase in value; many of these same bigwigs expect this before the end of 2019. By our estimation, not even George Steinbrenner’s ghost can serve as an effective impetus to bring the Yankees’ cap number over $400 million.

Odds Shohei Otani’s first MLB contract is payable in Bitcoin (in any part): 31/1

Japan was one of the first countries to recognize Bitcoin as a legal modicum of exchange, and it is a crypto-enthusiasts heaven; despite this, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see the highly volatile Bitcoin built into any North American pro-sports contracts as of yet. If Otani wants to place his net worth in the currency that many still regard as a speculative investment, he’ll likely have to do so by his own means.

Odds the next NCAA payment scandal involves Bitcoin: 27/1

When you think NCAA payment scandals these days, you think athletes getting the proverbial brown bag from assistant coaches, shoe companies, etc. But remember what just came out about Josh Gordon and his $10k/month marijuana sales while he attended Baylor. Much of Bitcoin’s notoriety was generated by its association with drugs and drug-related payments, so we wouldn’t be surprised if an NCAA player gets caught trafficking in illicit substances and ends up having ties to crypto.

Odds newly-rich fans pool their Bitcoin together to buy a pro sports franchise by 2020: 100/1

Given how hard (not mention how expensive) it is to acquire a professional sports franchise, we wouldn’t bet on any commissioner willingly signing up to deal with a horde of crypto-geeks, no matter how much digitally generated cash they are able to put on the table. The world is still a lot friendlier to owners who make their fortune via real estate than it is to those who bet on an obscure algorithm, whether you like it or not.