Film Odds: Can Planet of the Apes Unseat Spider-Man?

Apes run a muck in New York
Global Panorama (flickr) []

It’s been a patchy year so far for reboots and sequels, with reliable franchises like Pirates, Transformers, and Alien all falling short of expectations.

It hasn’t been all bad, though. Spider-Man: Homecoming, which tells the story of an awkward teenaged Peter Parker, has exceeded expectations at the box office and earned rave reviews. Debuting last week, Homecoming blew away the competition, raking in $117 Million over the weekend and kicking Despicable Me 3 from the top spot.

So far this year, only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Beauty and the Beast have managed higher domestic numbers over their opening week. But Homecoming will face some serious competition this weekend with the release of War For The Planet Of The Apes, with a pre-screening on Thursday night (July 13th) pulling in $5 Million. The Apes reboot trilogy officially debuts on Friday (July 14th).

War poses a significant threat to Homecoming over the weekend, and may even end up overshadowing the Marvel flick as the summer wears on.

What does the future hold for War and Homecoming? Let’s take a look at the numbers!

Spider-Man & Planet of the Apes Odds

Over/Under on War For The Planet Of The Apes opening weekend box office: $66 Million

Initial projections for War’s opening weekend numbers were around $50-60 Million, but estimates are now as high as $70-80 Million due to the overwhelmingly positive reviews and initial reaction. That still pales in comparison to Homecoming, which raked in a ridiculous $117 Million.

Odds War For The Planet Of The Apes is the highest-grossing film over the weekend: 1/1

War has little chance of breaking Homecoming’s opening numbers, but 20th Century Fox is counting on Spider-Man’s second-week numbers to dip significantly. If War can hit the upper limits of its box office projections, then they’ll more than likely claim the top spot.

However, like War, Homecoming has been met with glowing reviews. So it’s possible that their numbers won’t drop all that much.

Odds War For The Planet Of The Apes outearns Spider-Man: Homecoming in 2017: 9/1

At the moment, Homecoming sits behind only Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. With such an explosive opening week, it’ll be extremely tough to overtake. Even if War manages to pull in $80 Million over the weekend, that won’t be enough to hold a torch to the Marvel blockbuster.