Golden Globes Prediction Markets: Trade on Odds for Award Winners
By Paul Lebowitz in Entertainment
Published:
- The 2026 Golden Globes will be held on Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET from Beverly Hills, CA, on CBS with host Nikki Glaser
- It’s a huge night in the entertainment world with awards for film and television, voted on by journalists worldwide
- Prediction markets offer a myriad of options for trading with a focus on the nominees for best film, TV series, and performances
The 2026 Golden Globes is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET Sunday evening at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California. CBS and Paramount+ will broadcast the event live as comedian Nikki Glaser is set to host the award ceremony.
Before the red carpet arrivals get underway, check out what the odds are saying for Golden Globes prediction markets for some of tonight’s top awards.
Golden Globe Awards Betting Odds 2026
The Golden Globes is a gathering of the best the entertainment world has to offer. The show tries to be less constrained than the Oscars by perceptions of propriety. Host Nikki Glaser is known for her coming-close-to-the-line brand of humor, though she tones it down significantly from her raunchy standup act.
It is generally seen as a precursor for the Oscars and Emmys with the Golden Globe winners frequently being in contention and often winning in the other awards shows. This year’s show has some attention-grabbing and unexpected films, shows and performers listed among the nominees.
Prediction markets give users the chance to trade on the Golden Globe winners. Here, we’ll look at some of the more interesting awards and their contenders. All “Yes” outcomes will be verified by the Golden Globes itself.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
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KPop Demon Hunters is the overwhelming favorite with the market indicating an extremely high chance at winning the award.
It is an action-comedy centered on a K-pop girl group that doubles as demon hunters, as the title suggests. Their enemies are a K-pop boy band that was sent to steal their fans. The film drew attention in large part because of its soundtrack with multiple hits including “Golden,” “TAKEDOWN,” and “Soda Pop.”
The primary competitors are Arco and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Arco is a time-travel film where the 10-year-old protagonist’s time-travel device is broken and he is trying to get home with help from a young girl as he tries to avoid pursuers who want to prove he is from the future. It features a star-studded voice over case including Natalie Portman (who also produced the film), Chris Hemsworth, Will Ferrell, and Jake Gyllenhaal.
In Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, the film is based on a Belgian novel. In it, a child in a vegetative state believes she is a god and finds consciousness. She then tries to forge a bond with her family.
It seems fait accompli that KPop Demon Hunters will win, but the other stories have social themes that could appeal to voters in the current political climate.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Kalshi prediction market for the best motion picture has Sinners as a solid favorite, followed by Hamnet, and Sentimental Value.
Ryan Coogler directed Sinners starring Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers. The brothers return home to Mississippi in the 1930s after working for Al Capone in Chicago. The open a bar with music and dancing, but soon need to battle vampires who are an allegory for racism and segregation of the time.
Hamnet is based on a novel in which William Shakespeare and his wife Agnes, played by Anne Hathaway, grieve for their son Hamnet who died of the plague, inspiring Shakespeare to write Hamlet.
Sentimental Value is a Norwegian film about sisters trying to reconcile with their father played by Stellan Skarsgård who returns to Oslo following the death of his wife, the sisters’ mother.
Horror films are frequently a tough sell for some voters who don’t even want to see them, let alone vote for them to win major awards, regardless of the themes.
Period pieces tend to do well with voters. That gives Hamnet an opening. But the family aspect and the estrangement in Sentimental Value makes it worth consideration to buy, particularly since its odds are so long.
Best Television Series – Drama
The Pitt is the landslide favorite to take home the Golden Globe for best Drama TV series this evening.
Far behind are Pluribus and Severance with long shot odds.
The Pitt stars the likable and popular actor Noah Wylie as the senior attending physician in a Pittsburgh hospital emergency room. In a wink and nod, Wylie became a household name along with George Clooney and Julianna Margulies on ER in the 1990s. The show is lauded for its realism and the plight of medical professionals in a one-hour timeframe. Medical professionals have praised how realistic it is.
Pluribus is noteworthy because it is the brainchild of Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul creator Vince Gilligan. In it, an alien is infesting humanity with a virus while the protagonist played by Rhea Seehorn, who is one of the few immune from the “hive mind.”
Severance is a sci-fi thriller in which employees at a biotech corporation had their consciousness split between their work and their personal lives.
Voters tend to like hospital shows and realism, but there are so many of them around, perhaps there might be some form of fatigue or the idea that they’re running into each other making it at least possible that The Pitt won’t win.
Gilligan and Seehorn are critical darlings after their work on Better Call Saul. Pluribus is polarizing with its slow pace and themes, but global voters are less impatient and more willing to let shows play out than U.S. voters.
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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Skarsgård is the current leader in this market for his performance in Sentimental Value. Second is Benicio Del Toro and fourth is Sean Penn from One Battle After Another. They sandwich Jacob Elordi from Frankenstein in third.
As stated earlier when discussing Sentimental Value, it’s exactly the type of film critics tend to vote for and that extends to the actors, particularly a flawed character like Skarsgård’s Gustav Borg.
When two actors from the same film or show are in one category, there is a great chance of them canceling one another out. See Woody Harrelson and Matthew McConaughey in True Detective, Season 1.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Amy Madigan from Weapons is the favorite, but Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another is a close second.
The gap widens for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Sentimental Value yielding third in the prediction markets.
The veteran character actress Madigan is the villain in the horror film Weapons centering on disappearing children. As “Aunt Gladys,” she is responsible for their disappearance for her supernatural needs. Awards voters like uncharacteristic villains and Madigan needed to wear terrifying makeup and took on a sinister joy in playing the character. It could be a career award for a longtime “I recognize her” face who is now 75.
Taylor was known more in the music industry as a choreographer for Beyoncé, a dancer, and a singer, as well as for having been married to NBA player Iman Shumpert. But her acting chops received acclaim, particularly for her role as the Leonardo DiCaprio character’s ex-wife in One Battle After Another. She plays a complex revolutionary and mother whose past exploits hearken back to 1970s protest extremism. The current political lines could give rise to this type of character garnering attention from awards voters and vault over Madigan.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
