GTA 6 Delayed Again – See Actual Projected Release Date on Prediction Markets

• Rockstar delays GTA 6 again, this time to November 2026
• Kalshi traders give it just 70% odds of actually releasing in 2026
• See the actual projected GTA 6 release date according to prediction markets below

Rockstar has made the announcement everyone expected, but no one wanted. Grand Theft Auto VI will now release on November 19, 2026, six months later than promised. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s the second delay in six months for what’s supposed to be the biggest entertainment release in history.

The prediction markets have been tracking growing skepticism for months. Kalshi has been running markets on when GTA 6 will come out, letting traders bet on when Rockstar will actually deliver. The current odds cast serious doubt about whether we’ll even see the game in 2026.

Kalshi GTA 6 Release Date Odds

With nearly $1 million in total volume ($992,020 to be exact), these aren’t casual bets. Traders are putting real money on their predictions. The 70% probability of a 2026 release means 30% of traders think this game slips into 2027 or later.

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Odds as of Nov. 6 at Kalshi following Rockstar’s delay announcement. Trade on GTA 6 release date with the Kalshi promo code.

Markets Track Growing Doubts About 2026 Release

What’s interesting about prediction markets is watching confidence erode in real time. The “Before 2027” market started around 90% confidence when trading opened in May, showing traders initially believed Rockstar’s timeline. Then reality hit.

The market reaction today was wild but predictable. Yesterday, June 2026 was sitting at 65% and August 2026 was at 70%. Then Rockstar announced the November delay, and traders dumped everything.

The “Before 2027” market crashed to 67%, bounced to 77%, and has now settled at 70%. But the real bloodbath was in those summer 2026 windows. June crashed from 65% to 3%. August fell from 70% to 7%. Of course they did. Why would anyone bet on June or August when Rockstar just said November?

The 90% to 70% decline since May tells the bigger story though. Traders are steadily losing faith that we’ll see this game in 2026 at all. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick says he’s ‘highly confident’ in this new date. We’ve heard that before.

Why Traders Are Predicting More GTA 6 Delays

I’ve been watching these markets closely, and the skepticism is understandable. We’re now 13 years since GTA 5 launched. Rockstar still hasn’t shown us actual gameplay with UI elements. Not cutscenes, not in-engine footage, but the real playable game. That’s concerning this late in development.

The timing is also suspect. Rockstar just fired 31 employees last week for allegedly “distributing confidential information,” though the workers claim it was union-busting. Either way, losing that many people can’t help your development timeline.

Then there’s the scope. This game reportedly has a $2 billion budget, making it the most expensive entertainment product ever created. The map is supposedly 2.5 times larger than GTA 5. They’re promising revolutionary AI and graphics that push current consoles to their limits. Every delay adds pressure to deliver something worth the wait.

GTA 6 PC Release: 2028?

PC players are the ones who are most impacted by these delays. Console players are looking at November 2026, but PC players are staring at 2028. Maybe later.

Rockstar usually releases games on PC long after the console versions. Red Dead Redemption 2 took 13 months, and GTA 5 took 18 months. So even if GTA 6 comes out in November 2026, PC players probably won’t get it until 2028 at the earliest. By then, it will have been 15 years since GTA 5.

The Kalshi markets don’t even track PC release dates. Probably because the timeframe would be too depressing to bet on.

My GTA 6 Release Date Prediction: Expect 2027

If I’m betting these markets, I’m taking “No” on the June 2026 market at 96¢. That’s basically free money. There’s zero chance this game releases before June after just being delayed to November.

The more interesting bet is whether it releases in 2026 at all. The 70% probability feels generous to me. The market has steadily dropped from 90% to 70%, showing growing pessimism. Rockstar has shown they’ll delay as many times as needed. The pattern is clear: announce a date, get within six months, delay again.

I think we will see GTA 6 in March 2027. They’ll delay one more time after the holidays, citing “final polish” or some corporate excuse. The game will still break every sales record when it launches because we’ll all buy it anyway. That’s the cruel part. Rockstar knows they can delay forever, and we’ll still line up.

But at least now you can bet on it. Head to Kalshi if you want to put money where your frustration is. Just remember, the house always wins. And in this case, the house is Rockstar’s development timeline.