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Kamala Harris is Favored to Take on Trump in 2020

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Entertainment

Aug 28, 2018 · 10:11 AM PDT

Kamala Harris has overtaken Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic frontrunner in 2020
Kamala Harris has overtaken Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic frontrunner in 2020. Photo by Donkey Hotey (Flickr).
  • Sportsbooks have new odds for who will lead the Democrat and Republican parties for the next US Presidential election
  • Will Kamala Harris make a bid for the presidency in 2020?
  • Does John Kasich have what it takes to challenge Trump?

It’s time for another round of picks for the 2020 election.

There are about six Democrats pulling away from the rest of the pack and establishing themselves as the frontrunners for the Democratic ticket. There are also a few dark horses who could come out of nowhere and pinch the nomination, much like Obama in 2008.

On the other side of the aisle, Trump is naturally the favorite to run for reelection. But of course that’s not guaranteed. The Mueller investigation is closing in on his inner circle and could end with Trump himself. His former campaign manager could potentially spend the rest of his life behind bars and his former personal attorney is offering to cooperate with the investigation. Also, his poll numbers have been abnormally low throughout his entire presidency.

Democratic Nominee for the 2020 Election Odds
Kamala Harris +400
Bernie Sanders +450
Joe Biden +500
Elizabeth Warren +1000
Cory Booker +1200
Kirsten Gillibrand +1200
Oprah Winfrey +1600
Andrew Cuomo +2000
Michelle Obama +2500
Julian Castro +2500
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Tom Wolf +2500
Joe Kennedy III +2500
Hillary Clinton +3300

Kamala Harris (+400) won’t say whether she’s running in 2020. But she doesn’t have to. It’s a given that the junior senator from California will make a bid for the presidency. She’s ramping up her national profile, and her upcoming memoir, The Truths We Hold: An American Journey, is scheduled for early 2019, right when potential candidates will start revving up for the election. She lacks the national profile of the other frontrunners, but that will all change once she officially decides to run.

The next two frontrunners are both on the older side. Bernie Sanders (+450) will be 79 by the 2020 election, and Joe Biden (+500) will be 78. With age comes experience and name recognition, but there’s currently a push for fresh faces in the Democratic party. We definitely can’t rule out the two elder statesmen, but I wouldn’t take them at their current odds.

With age comes experience and name recognition, but there’s currently a push for fresh faces in the Democratic party.

At 69, Elizabeth Warren isn’t exactly an up-and-comer either. But as a hero of the progressive wing, she’s a favorite among many young Democrats. She was urged to run in 2016 but decided not to challenge Clinton. After seeing Trump rise to power, she may now finally throw her hat into the ring.

Cory Booker (+1200) and Kirsten Gillibrand (+1200) have been floating around the top of the list for some time, but both have seen their stock dip in recent months. The Democratic base seems to have cooled off on Booker and the excitement around Gillibrand has somewhat shifted to Harris.

Outside of the big six, I would only seriously consider Julian Castro (+2500) and Amy Klobuchar (+2500). Both are extremely popular in their districts but have yet to break out on the national stage. There’s still a lot of time to get their names out.

Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar reflect the changing face of America, which is something the Democratic Party needs to embrace in order to remain competitive.

Both Harris and Castro are rising stars in the Democratic party. They’re both talented politicians and excellent public speakers. They reflect the changing face of America, which is something the Democratic Party needs to embrace in order to remain competitive. There’s great value in Harris at +400, despite her being the favorite. And Castro makes for a great long-shot pick at +2500.

Pick: Kamala Harris (+400) and Julian Castro (+2500)

Republican Nominee for the 2020 Election Odds
Donald Trump -300
Mike Pence +800
Paul Ryan +2000
Ben Shapiro +2000
Orin Hatch +2000
Jamie Dimon +2000
John Kasich +2500
Mark Cuban +2500
Rand Paul +4000

If not Donald Trump, then who?

Let’s rule out some names first. Paul Ryan (+2000) is despised by both Democrats and Republicans, so I wouldn’t count on him winning anything. Orrin Hatch (+2000) is the longest serving Republican senator in history, and will be 86 by the time of the election. Let’s not give him too much thought.

If the Republicans are going to run a business mogul, it’ll be the one currently in office, not Jamie Dimon or Mark Cuban.

If the Republicans are going to run a business mogul, it’ll be the one currently in office, not Jamie Dimon (+2000) or Mark Cuban (+4000). And conservative provocateur Ben Shapiro (+2000) has little appeal beyond his existing fanbase.

That leaves Mike Pence (+800), John Kasich (+2500), and Rand Paul (+4000). The Vice President is the natural pick if Trump doesn’t run for whatever reason, but any dirt on the President is also dirt on him. He’s remained silent through every scandal and controversy, standing by his partner through thick and thin.

Rand Paul will probably run again, but he’s never been a particularly popular candidate. He’s too far outside of the mainstream to gain support from the establishment, and too close to the mainstream to gain the cult following his father had.

So we’re down to one: John Kasich (+2500). The Ohio governor remained in the 2016 Primary race long after he had lost, building his national brand so that he could run again in the future. If the Republican party splits with Trump, they will want someone that can stand in contrast to him. That’s Kasich.

Pick: John Kasich (+2500)

Party to Win the 2020 Presidential Election  Odds
Republican Party +110
Democratic Party -130

This is as close to even money as we’re going to get. Donald Trump continues to wallow at 40-ish percent in the polls, with no sign of brighter days ahead. Those close to him are flipping, leaking, and lashing out against him, and the Russia investigation has already closed in on his inner circle. His Republican colleagues have remained either silent or supportive through all of this, because even though Trump is nationally unpopular, he’s extremely popular among the Republican base.

Regardless of what happens between now and 2020, the Republican party is now the party of Trump. And, if the Democrats manage to mess this one up, they should stand a good chance of winning.

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