Late Night Odds: Colbert Continues To Surge

The last time I covered the war over Late Night television, Stephen Colbert’s The Late Show had surpassed Jimmy Fallon’s The Tonight Show for the first time since taking over from David Letterman in April of 2014. This was back in early February, and it was a much-needed boost for Colbert. The former host of The Colbert Report had gotten off to a rough start, and, according to rumors, was at risk of being replaced.

But now, Colbert is hitting his fifth straight week at the top of the late night ratings. Since the start of the Trump presidency, the public has gravitated towards Colbert’s biting, politically-charged style of comedy over Fallon’s easy-going, apolitical approach.

According to Page Six, the ratings drop has prompted network executives at NBC to push Fallon to become more political. The Tonight Show responded by introducing their “This Week in Words” segment, a kind of remix-the-news song piece that covers a few of the top political events that week.

Still, the segment is extremely gentle in its approach. It’s careful not to express a point-of-view and still carries Fallon’s “all in good fun” approach to satire. If the executives want a more Colbert-like approach, they might have to look somewhere else.

Stephen Colbert has taken a strong adversarial position against President Trump, while Fallon stands on the sidelines gently poking fun at everyone. Until recently, Fallon’s approach was far more successful. Late Night television was considered a time for light-hearted fun and bloodless jokes, not political commentary or serious criticism.

But the Trump presidency seems to have changed that, and all of a sudden Colbert finds himself the King of Late Night. Jimmy Fallon will need to adjust, but imitating Colbert is a losing game. The two comedians have very different strengths and sensibilities, so Fallon will have to find something that works for him.

It’s possible that as we delve deeper into the Trump presidency, the public will feel a kind of “politics burnout”, where they become so overwhelmed with the amount of political coverage that they shut it out. If this is the case, then we might just see Fallon float back to the top. But with the way things are going, people are only becoming more engaged with politics, and that’s great news for Colbert.

Colbert may have won the last few battles, but who will win the Late Night war? Here are the odds.

2017 Late Night Television Prop Odds

Odds to hold the highest average ratings by year-end:

Stephen Colbert: 3/7

Jimmy Fallon: 7/3

O/U on average rating in 2017:

Stephen Colbert: 3.9

Jimmy Fallon: 3.4

Odds to have Trump on as a guest by year-end:

Jimmy Fallon: 9/1

Stephen Colbert: 99/1

Odds to be attacked by Trump on Twitter by year-end:

Stephen Colbert: 11/9

Jimmy Fallon: 20/1

Odds to still be host by year-end:

Jimmy Fallon: 1/4

Stephen Colbert: 1/19