Movie Odds: Blade Runner 2049 Dreams of Electric Sales

The cast of 2049 at Comic Con. Photo credit: Gage Skidmore (Wikimedia) CC License

After a confident Thursday night of previews, Blade Runner 2049 hits wide release throughout North America today (Friday, October 6th). The sequel to the beloved Blade Runner (1982), which was directed by Ridley Scott and starred a young Harrison Ford, picks up 30 years after the original left off. That’s perfect for Ford, who returns as Rick Deckard 35 years after he first played the iconic character.

Blade Runner writer Hampton Fancher also returned to pen the 2049 screenplay. But director Ridley Scott (now 79 years old) was replaced by Arrival director Denis Villeneuve for the sequel.

The early returns on 2049 are promising. It’s been met with overwhelmingly positive reviews and pulled in some impressive numbers during its Thursday night preview. Will it manage to keep the momentum going? Will its critical acclaim translate to Oscars success? Here are the odds.


BLADE RUNNER 2049 ODDS

OVER/UNDER ON OPENING-WEEK SALES FOR 2049: $47 million

Blade Runner 2049 pulled in $4 million during its early release (October 5th), which is a promising sign. After it expands to wide release, it’s projected to gross between $45 and $50 million in its first weekend. That would place 2049 among other 2017 blockbusters like Transformers: The Last Knight and Dunkirk.

OVER/UNDER ON TOTAL DOMESTIC SALES FOR 2049: $149 million

Mad Max: Fury Road raked in $3.7 million in its Thursday night preview, so it makes sense to use it as a benchmark for 2049. Like the Blade Runner sequel, Fury Road was met with glowing reviews and earned a 97% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Fury Road ended up earning $154 in domestic sales, but we should expect 2049 to fall slightly under. There isn’t nearly as much hype surrounding 2049 and its Rotten Tomatoes score isn’t as impressive (89%). A total gross of around $150 million would leave 2049 among peers like War for the Planet of the Apes and Cars 3, which is reasonable.

ODDS 2049 IS THE TOP-GROSSING FILM ON ITS OPENING WEEKEND: 1/19

There isn’t much competition for 2049 this weekend. The Mountain Between Us, starring Idris Elba and Kate Winslet, also opens this weekend and has a far more modest sales target (around $11 million). And My Little Pony: The Movie shouldn’t pose much of a threat either.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($50 million) and The LEGO Ninjago Movie ($24 million) opened with impressive numbers last week, but their sales are expected to drop significantly this weekend. It is still going strong with $38 million in its third week, but that’s a huge drop from its opening numbers.

OVER/UNDER ON OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR 2049: 2.5

Blade Runner 2049 isn’t exactly Oscar bait, but we should expect to see them given the nod for a few of the technical awards. The film has been praised for its cinematography and score, and has been noted for its stellar CGI. That puts 2049 in the hunt in a handful of categories: Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects. They’re often neglected prizes among the media, but they’re hugely important to the overall quality of a film, especially a sci-fi stunner like 2049. 

ODDS 2049 WINS THE OSCAR FOR …

Best Picture: 35/1

Best Film Editing: 8/1

Best Sound Mixing: 7/1

Best Cinematography: 5/1

Best Visual Effects: 3/1

Best Original Score: 3/1