Movie Odds: Who Will Rule the Box Office in 2017

Back in February, I provided some odds on what films would hit the billion-dollar mark this year. In doing so, I gave my box office predictions for some of 2017’s biggest blockbusters.

Now that we are entering the final stretch of the cinematic season, how have those predictions held up and who is positioned to make the most bank at this year’s box office?

Clearly, the #1 film of 2017 will be Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which could surpass the $2 billion mark when it’s all said and done.

What other movies will wind their way into the top ten?

This is where things get fun. Beauty and the Beast seems to be in a safe spot at #2, even beating out The Fate of the Furious. A lot of the films that are in the top five have already established themselves as big winners, but there are a couple of outsiders that haven’t opened in theatres just yet that could make things interesting.

For instance, Justice League could either find its way into the top five — benefiting from the momentum of fellow DCEU offering Wonder Woman — or fail to get past the $700-million mark if it receives poor reviews out of the gate (which isn’t out of the question given the production problems).

Blade Runner 2049 is also hard to predict. Will a sequel to a sci-fi cult classic 30 years after the fact reach the same box office numbers of recent sci-fi films released around the same time of year, like The Martian ($630 million), Gravity ($723 million), and Interstellar ($675 million)? Some experts are predicting Blade Runner 2049 could do a modest $240 million, but with director Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) attached, and Harrison Ford and Ryan Gosling starring, it should do better than that.

The ultimate box-office success of films like these is based on many factors, like cast, release date, the competition surrounding, and whether or not anyone is wearing tights. Films like Transformers and movies that star Tom Cruise usually find a lot of success overseas but don’t always resonate with fans domestically. However, because of those big international dollars, they still manage to make a massive profit.

Who is positioned to bring home the bacon? Below are the top blockbusters coming out this year, and my updated odds on who will rule the world-wide box office in 2017.

2017 BOX-OFFICE LEADER ODDS

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (December 15, 2017): 1/9

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $2.0 billion

Well duh. It’s so nice to make a list like this where you already know what the top grossing film of 2017 will be. The question is will it eventually go over the $2 billion mark like The Force Awakens did back in 2015 or will it hover around 1.8 billion?

Beauty and the Beast (March 17, 2017): 50/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $1 billion
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $1.3 billion

We were pretty close on this prediction, although it didn’t take a rocket scientist to guess that a live adaptation of a popular Disney animated film would do over a billion dollars. Still, it appears Beauty and the Beast has some major staying power and it should continue to sit comfortably behind Star Wars.

The Fate of the Furious (April 14, 2017): 50/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $1.2 billion
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $1.2 billion

We predicted this would probably sit in 2nd place behind The Last Jedi, but as I write this it currently sits just behind Beauty and the Beast. Saying that, my prediction is right on the money as far as cashola goes. Beauty and the Beast just had that extra Disney push at the starting line and was able to pass CGI cars driving on the ice being chased by a submarine.

It’s tough sledding to hit a billion dollars, but I’m not sure if there is anyone who is going to surpass 1.2 at this point. Maybe Justice League could surprise us and give The Fate of the Furious a good race? It would depend on the Wonder Woman momentum factor and early reviews. For now, I think The Fate of the Furious will be sitting pretty in the top three when all is said and done.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 5, 2017): 100/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $1.1 billion
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $860 million

Okay, I was a bit over zealous on this prediction. That said, $860 million is nothing to cough at. Although Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 might be safe in the top ten, is Star Lord and crew safe at #4?  It could be Guardians vs. Justice League, which would be every nerd’s wet dream if it was an actual storyline and not a box office battle.

Justice League (November 17, 2017): 100/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $900 million

Can I take our prediction back? There is no doubt a superhero film will do big bank at the box office, but I feel like DC’s Justice League is not going to do $900 million. Maybe Wonder Woman’s surprise surge this year will give this newest DCEU film a bit of a box office boost, but $900 million might be pushing it. Regardless, it will most definitely find a home in the top ten somewhere. Maybe around $800 million?

Despicable Me 3 (June 30, 2017): 125/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $825 million
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $825 million

Wow, I nailed that one. It will probably surpass $825 million but the minions seemed to have landed pretty close to where I predicted. Although the third’ish film in the franchise didn’t get glowing reviews, it still managed to do some big bank worldwide. Minions might still be hot but with enthusiasm fading, Illumination Entertainment may want to focus on other projects and come back to Despicable Me 4 in a few years.

Wonder Woman (June 1, 2017): 125/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $700 million
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $789 million

At the time my $700 million prediction seemed conservative but justified. However, this film just keeps on keeping on and although it has benefited from politics as well as being the first film in the DCEU that didn’t suck, the sky is the limit in how much more money it could grab before summer’s end. Will it surpass Despicable Me 3? I’m done guessing with this flick as nothing would surprise me anymore.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (May 26, 2017): 150/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction:$820 million
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $776 million

Our prediction was close but a bit off, just like this fifth installment in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise was as far as reviews were concerned. I feel we have jumped the dead zombie shark on this series as even Johnny Depp appeared he was just collecting his loot of gold. When your star seems to be disinterested, it’s time for the franchise to walk the plank. But it won’t because it made over $700 million! Arrr…

Will it be safe in the top ten? Probably but it will hover near the bottom, especially if Coco and Thor: Ragnarök do better than what I’m projecting.

Thor: Ragnarök (November 3, 2017): 150/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $775 million

This is a tough one to call. Thor (2011) did close to $500 million, and Thor: The Dark World (2013) did $645 million so will the third film continue to rise? The Thor series has been the weaker films of the MCU. But the trailers have been great and with how hot the Marvel properties have been at the box office lately, Ragnarök might trend upwards like most of the Marvel sequels have. You insert the Hulk into the storyline and this film has potential to make some big returns. Keep in mind though that it only has a couple of weeks to make some cash before Justice League opens November 17th.

Spider-Man: Homecoming (July 7, 2017): 150/1

Our Worldwide Box Office Prediction: $900 million
Current Worldwide Box Office (August 1): $638 million

Okay, I was way off. Call it wishful thinking or banking on the great reception Spidey got in the last Captain America: Civil War flick, but I thought it would do far better than where it’s currently sitting. It’s still a great showing for a Spider-Man movie and the reboot seems to be in great hands now that Marvel and Sony have made nice. It still has some time to swing its way permanently into the top ten. For now, Spider-Man: Homecoming dangles but it’s definitely susceptible to having its web cut by a Pixar film in Coco or maybe even Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk.

The Field: 200/1

• Coco (November 22) – Box Office Prediction: $630 million 
• Logan (March 1) – Box Office Prediction:$470,000,000 – Current Box Office (August 1): $616 million
• Transformers: The Last Knight (June 21) – Box Office Prediction: $940 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $571 million
• Kong: Skull Island (March 10) – Box Office Prediction: $530 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $566 million
• Blade Runner 2049 (October 6) – Box Office Prediction: $550 million
• Dunkirk ( July 21) – Box Office Prediction: $525,000,000 – Current Box Office (August 1): $241 million
• The Dark Tower (August 4) – Box Office Prediction:$575,000,000
• Kingsman: The Golden Circle (September 22) – Box Office Prediction:$425 million
• The Boss Baby (March 31) – Current Box Office (August 1): $497 million
• IT (September 8) – Box Office Prediction: $400 million
• The Mummy (June 9) –  Current Box Office (August 1): $398 million
• Fifty Shades Darker (February 10) – Box Office Prediction: $395,000 – Current Box Office (August 1): $379 million
• XXX: The Return of Xander Cage (January 20) – Current Box Office (August 1): $346 million
• The Great Wall (February 17) – Current Box Office (August 1): $332 million
• The Lego Batman Movie – Box Office Prediction: $480 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $310 million
• Split (January 26) – Current Box Office (August 1): $277 million
• Cars 3 (June 16) –  Box Office Prediction: $675 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $269 million
• Get Out (February 24) – Current Box Office (August 1): $252 million
• War for the Planet of the Apes (July 10) – Box Office Prediction:$715 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $232 million
• Alien: Covenant (May 19) – Box Office Prediction: $600 million – Current Box Office (August 1): $233 million
• Ghost in the Shell (March 31) – Box Office Prediction: $450,000,000 – Current Box Office (August 1): $170 million