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Odds Say El Chapo Will Get Life in Prison, Won’t Escape Again

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Entertainment

Nov 25, 2018 · 4:39 PM PST

El Chapo being extradited to the US to face charges.
El Chapo being extradited to the US to face charges. Photo by Ted Psahos (Wikimedia) [CC License]
  • Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán faces 17 charges in the US and will likely receive a life sentence
  • The identities of the jury have been concealed to protect them from assassination attempts
  • The infamous drug lord has escaped from prison twice before, can he do it a third time?

Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán is having his day in court — again!

The latest trial of El Chapo is underway but the details are still shrouded in secrecy. Guzmán has a reputation for killing jurors, witnesses, and judges, so it’s understandable that the court is concealing as much as possible.

The stakes are high. Guzmán has been hit with 17 charges and will likely face life behind bars. He managed to escape from prison — twice! — in Mexico, but it’ll be a whole new challenge to do the same from a maximum-security prison in the US.

What’s in store for the infamous kingpin? Here are some props to consider.

Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Odds

Will El Chapo Be Found Guilty? Odds
Yes -700
No +400

The man has been charged twice before, and was found guilty both times.

His charges now include conspiracy to import and possess with intent to distribute cocaine, conspiracy association, organized crime against health, money laundering, possession of firearms, and, uh, homicide.

Guzmán has pleaded not guilty to all charges, but it’s fair to assume that the drug lord will make his way back to prison.

Pick: Yes (-700)

Will El Chapo Escape From Prison Again? Odds
Yes +2000
No -1000

He’s done it twice before, first in 2001 by hiding in a laundry bin and then again in 2015 via a secret tunnel.

Escaping a third time may prove a little more difficult, though. El Chapo has been extradited to the US, where the prisons are a little more airtight.

Still, at +2000 odds I’d take a punt on another glorious escape.

Pick: Yes (+2000)

Will El Chapo Die In Prison Before The Trial Ends? Odds
Yes +500
No -900

Guzmán is either 61 or 63 years old; his true date of birth hasn’t been confirmed. Either way, he’s still relatively young and unlikely to die of natural causes anytime soon.

He’s currently kept under solitary confinement in a maximum-security facility, so it’ll take a pretty sophisticated inside job to put a hit on him.

It’s possible that a few people will die before the trial ends, but El Chapo will likely be the one calling the shots, not receiving them.

Pick: No (-900)

Will El Chapo Write A Book In Prison? Odds
Yes -120
No -120

Well there’s definitely a market for one. From Narcos to El Chapo, it seems we can’t get enough of the biggest drug lord of all time.

If he wants to tell his story from his perspective, people will want to hear it. But between ordering hits on judges and plotting his next escape, he may not have much time to put pen to paper.

Pick: No (-120)

What Will El Chapo’s Sentence Be? Odds
Life in Prison -350
Death Penalty +200
Life with Possibility of Parole +300
Other +1000

As a condition of his extradition, U.S. prosecutors guaranteed Mexican officials that they would not seek the death penalty against Guzmán. So we can rule that one out.

There is no parole in federal prison, so we can rule “Life with Possibility of Parole” out as well. All that’s left is a mandatory life sentence.

Pick: Life in Prison (-350)

Will El Chapo Die of Non-Natural Causes in Prison? Odds
Yes +200
No -300

You don’t become the biggest drug lord in history without making a few enemies. And now that he’s vulnerable, his rivals may start gunning for him.

But it’s likely El Chapo will be sent to the SuperMax in Florence, a location reserved for only the highest-risk prisoners where maximum security is dialed up to 11.

Guzmán will have no contact to the outside world, and the outside world won’t be able to contact Guzmán.

Pick: No (-300)

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