Odds North Korea Meets with Trump after Bolton’s “Libya Model” Statements

• President Trump’s historic meeting with Kim Jong Un is in jeopardy. 
• Comments from National Security Advisor John Bolton appear to have angered the North Koreans. 
• Will the two sides come to the table on June 12 to discuss denuclearization?

Short days ago, plans for a historic meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared to be set. There was a date: June 12. There was a location: Singapore. There was even agreement on the topic of discussion: the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Then, new National Security Advisor John Bolton went on Face the Nation and made aggressive statements about the dismantling of North Korea’s entire nuclear program, and now North Korea may not be willing to come to the table at all.

Bolton’s statements, and past references to the Libyan model of denuclearization, have indicated to the Koreans that the US is not actually willing to negotiate, that the Trump administration has a hard-line about what it requires from North Korea which leaves little room for flexibility.

In essence, North Korea is worried that the US will not enter the proposed talks in good faith.

“High-ranking officials of the White House … are letting loose assertions of so-called Libya mode … while talking about formula of ‘abandoning nuclear weapons first, compensating afterwards.’ … This is not an expression of intention to address the issue through dialogue.” — Press Statement by North Korea’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs

That the references to the “Libyan model” sat poorly with the North Koreans is understandable, since Libya’s own ruthless dictator met an equally ruthless demise back in 2011.

#Gaddafi Killed in Libya as Interim Government Seizes Last Regime Stronghold. Update by @anjucomet http://t.co/Gb7nVFfV #gadhafi

— Democracy Now! (@democracynow) October 20, 2011

Is the recent reluctance out of Pyongyang simply pre-negotiation posturing or is the meeting actually in jeopardy of falling through?

Trump/Kim Jong Un Meeting Odds

North Korean experts largely agree that the recent rhetoric out of Pyongyang is more about setting expectations and framing the discussion for the meeting than it is about actually pulling out.

In addition, Trump himself has contradicted Bolton’s remarks regarding Libya, which may help placate North Korea’s concerns.

“The Libya model isn’t a model we have at all,” Trump tells reporters in the Oval Office, fully distancing himself from John Bolton’s repeated statements on North Korea, per @justinsink.

— Toluse Olorunnipa (@ToluseO) May 17, 2018

Yet, within the same statement, Trump also issued a veil threat at Kim Jong Un that he would meet a similar fate as Gaddafi if the US and North Korea don’t reach a deal on denuclearization.

President Trump suggests if a deal is not made with North Korea during the summit – that a similar fate to Gaddafi could await Kim Jong-un – saying “That the [Libya] model would take place if we don’t make a deal.”

Watch @NBCNews‘ @HansNichols for more analysis. pic.twitter.com/RYpQnVDvE2

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) May 17, 2018

With over a month left before the proposed meeting and the US/NK relationship already taking a frosty turn since last week’s hostage release, there’s a significant possibility the meeting doesn’t happen as planned, or at all in 2018.

We are, after all, dealing with arguably the most unpredictable regime in the world … and North Korea.