Political Odds: French Election Turning Into Two-Man Race
When French president Francois Hollande’s approval rating sank to a dismal 4 percent, he declared that he would not run in the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for April 23rd. And that wasn’t all; Hollande also handed the Socialist Party over to Benoit Hamon. But it looks like the French people are eager for an even bigger change than that.
Since polling started in early November, it seemed that Francois Fillon, the candidate for the right-wing party The Republican, was set to become France’s next president. But last month he was embroiled in a finance scandal, sending his campaign into a tailspin and blowing the door open for two insurgent candidates – Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
Emmanuel Macron, a former minister for Hollande who ditched the Socialist Party to form his own outsider party, En Marche!, is currently the front-runner. Macron positions himself as a candidate above the fray of left-right politics, instead opting for a technocratic platform that is unafraid to pick and choose from left and right-wing policies.
This has opened him up to criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. His detractors on the left condemn his betrayal of Hollande and are suspicious of his corporate ties. Meanwhile, those on the right claim he is not sufficiently “Pro-France” and far too critical of the nation’s colonial past.
Despite all the opposition, Macron has managed to garner a lot of excitement as the fresh-faced outsider. The last few weeks has seen him explode in popularity, and he currently stands the best chance of winning the presidency.
But hot on his tail is Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate of the National Front. Running on a nationalist, anti-immigration platform, Le Pen is riding the wave that brought about Donald Trump and Brexit. She’s fiercely opposed to the EU and has promised a Brexit-like referendum if elected.
Benoit Hamon, Hollande’s successor at the Socialist Party, is still in the running, but his chances are very slim. The French people have made it abundantly clear that they are unhappy with the current direction France has taken. The question is, which way do they want to go?
If the April election fails to select a candidate with a clear majority, then a second runoff election will take place in early May between the top two candidates. At the moment, that seems like the way things are headed.
Le Pen is currently leading in the polls by an extremely narrow margin, but in a head-to-head runoff against Macron, the polls don’t sway in her favor.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and April. French politics is rife with scandals and there have been serious allegations of Russian interference. We’ll keep you updated as the odds change. But for now, here’s where the candidates stand.
Odds to be the next President of France:
Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!): 53/47
Marine Le Pen (National Front): 16/9
Francois Fillon (The Republican): 91/9
Benoit Hamon (Socialist Party): 47/3
Jean-Luc Melenchon (Unsubmissive France): 99/1
Don Aguero is a man of many talents, writing about nearly anything you can put odds to. Don has been writing for SportsBettingDime since 2015, covering sports, entertainment and politics. You name it, he's covered it! He is also a steadfast West Ham fan, and has learned to embrace that suffering.
