Political Odds: May To Extend Majority W/ Snap Election

All but the most democratically enamored Brits are probably getting sick of voting, but UK citizens will take to the polls once more on June 8th, 2017, for a General Election. The governing Conservative party wasn’t required to hold an election until 2020, but Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election earlier this month in an attempt to secure a stronger mandate.

The key issue surrounding the election is Brexit, and May and the Conservatives would like a stronger majority heading into exit negotiations. As it stands, the Conservative Party holds 330 of 650 seats in the House of Commons, giving them a narrow majority.

There’s also some political opportunism at play as well. May currently has a strong lead in the polls and her main rival, Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party, is a polarizing figure both with the public and within his own party.

According to the latest YouGov Polls, the Conservatives (45-percent) have a strong 16-point lead over the Labour Party (29-percent). Other polls have the Tories leading by as much as 25-percent.

When it comes to head-to-head polling on who would make the more capable PM, the Conservatives are looking even better. The latest poll by Ipsos MORI has Theresa May leading Jeremy Corbin by a whopping 38 points (61-percent to 23-percent). In fact, May is polling even better than Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher at their peaks.

Corbyn still has time to make up ground, but it’s an uphill battle for the Labour leader. Not only does he need to gain support from the public, he still needs to win the confidence of his own party. Recently, former Prime Minister Tony Blair stopped short of endorsing him.

Also looming in the background is the issue of Scottish Independence. The last thing May wants right now is the break down of another union. Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon has openly expressed her interest in another independence referendum, so we can be sure that’ll factor into the upcoming election.

If the polls are to be trusted, Theresa May is the overwhelming favorite to win. Her plan to expand the Conservative majority in Parliament seems pretty likely at the moment. With well over a month to go, Corbyn can’t be counted out, especially not with so many controversial issues dominating the conversation. But he hasn’t given bettors a reason to pick him yet.

Here’s a look at the current odds.

United Kingdom 2017 Election Odds

Odds to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

• Theresa May (Conservative): 3/7
• Jeremy Corbyn (Labour): 71/29
• Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat): 250/1
• FIELD: 99/1

Odds to be the next party leader to resign

• Jeremy Corbyn (Labour): 41/59
• Theresa May (Conservative): 17/3
• Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish National Party): 9/1
• Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat): 23/2
• Paul Nuttall (UK Independence Party): 23/2

Odds Scottish Parliament calls for an independence referendum before the election (June 8, 2017): 4/1

O/U on number of televised debates featuring Teresa May: 1.5