Political Odds: Michael Flynn is Out. Who’s Next to Go for Trump?

Donald Trump at a New Hampshire townhall
Photo credit: Michael Vadon (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Well, that was quick!

After only 24 days as Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn resigned in disgrace after it was found that he had lied to Vice President Mike Pence about his interactions with Russian officials. Flynn was a controversial appointment from the very start, establishing himself as a loose cannon with a fondness for conspiracy theories.

His resignation is the first casualty of Trump’s appointments and marks the shortest ever tenure for a National Security Advisor. With all the turmoil surrounding Trump’s team, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be the only one to go.

Who will be the next to leave? Here are the odds!


Odds on the next Trump staffer/appointee to resign or be fired:

Steve Bannon, Assistant to the President/Chief Strategist: 3/1

The far-right Steve Bannon has been described as a white nationalist. Before joining the Trump campaign, he ran Breitbart News, a controversial alt-right news website. But that’s not why his job is at stake. Bannon has received a lot of attention recently and has been credited with pulling the strings behind the scenes. Rumor has it that this has angered Trump, who takes issue with being labeled Bannon’s puppet. If the power struggle continues, we could see Bannon out of a job.

Sean Spicer, Press Secretary: 4/1

Sean Spicer has been extremely hostile to the press corps as the White House Press Secretary, and his statements, which have varied from inaccurate to downright lies, have been heavily scrutinized by the media.

This hasn’t seemed to slow him down. Spicer seems as energetic as the day he started. But the Press Secretary position has a notoriously short shelf-life. It’s extremely draining being the mouthpiece of the President and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him burn out quickly.

Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education: 17/3

Betsy DeVos received Senate confirmation by the skin of her teeth, requiring Mike Pence’s vote to get over the mark. She faces extreme opposition from the democrats and the general public, which may prove problematic for her in the future. For now, though, she has the full backing of Trump and her job seems pretty safe.

Jared Kushner, Senior Advisor: 19/1

Trump’s son-in-law is tasked with an impossible mission: bring peace to the Middle East. Well, that’s not exactly his mission (and not necessarily his intention either), but anytime the Israel-Palestine conflict is involved, there is bound to be controversy.

Kushner has the advantage of being married to Trump’s favorite child, which gives him a lot of power and security. Unless things go seriously awry, he’s probably not going anywhere.

Kellyanne Conway, Counselor to the President:  49/1

Kellyanne Conway is one of Trump’s most reliable staffers. Her official title is Counselor to the President, but she is primarily tasked with spinning Trump’s policies and actions in a positive way. She’s been mocked relentlessly for her use of phrases such as “alternative facts,” and has infuriated journalists with her constant obfuscation and misdirection. But that’s what makes her so valuable to Trump. It’s hard to see her leaving his side anytime soon.