Political Odds: Progressive Democrats Push for 2020

Photo credit: Mobilus In Mobili (Flickr) CC License

Donald Trump has been president for over 250 days and not once has his approval rating passed the 50% mark, according to FiveThirtyEight. In recent months, his numbers have fluctuated between 35 and 40%, making him the most unpopular president in modern history. Other Presidents have had lower ratings during their terms, but never this early. That makes the 2020 election especially interesting. The time is ripe for both Democrats and Republicans to unseat the current president.

The war between so-called establishment and progressive Democrats rages on, and it’s clear that the progressives have the momentum at the moment. The three Democratic frontrunners — Kamala Harris (9/1 odds), Elizabeth Warren (10/1), and Bernie Sanders (10/1) — all support the Sanders’ Medicare-for-All bill, which proposes a single-payer healthcare system.

In a Republican-controlled Congress, the bill doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. But the fact that leading Democrats are jumping on board shows that they acknowledge the influence of progressives in the party.

Sanders and Warren have been champions of the Progressive wing for some time, so it’s no surprise that they spearheaded the bill. What’s more noteworthy is that Democrats like Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand have joined the fight.

Booker, who fell out of favor with progressives after he voted against a bill that would lower prescription drug prices for Americans, is going all out to repair his reputation in time for 2020. Harris, a newcomer to the scene, has planted her flag on the Warren-Sanders wing. And Gillibrand, a Clinton loyalist, has split with her mentor on the issue of single-payer healthcare. The only Democratic frontrunner who hasn’t endorsed single-payer healthcare is Joe Biden (and Clinton, if you consider her a frontrunner).

Over at the GOP, there are only two names that really stand out — Donald Trump and Mike Pence. A President seeking reelection would normally have odds far more optimistic than 7/3, but Donald Trump is no normal President. No previous President has faced approval ratings this low in their opening months and there’s nothing to suggest that Trump’s numbers will improve anytime soon.

If, for whatever reason, Trump abandons the Presidency before finishing his first term, then Vice-President Mike Pence (15/1) will assume the role of Commander-in-chief. There are also rumors that the Veep is toying with the idea of unseating Trump in 2020. Of course, he’s vehemently denied those allegations.

Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton, both rising stars in the Republican party, have visited Iowa this year (a sure sign that they are eyeing the presidency), and 2016 candidate John Kasich has done his best to remain relevant amid the Trump-storm. If the President remains this unpopular throughout his first term, then there will be a line of Republicans ready to primary him. But at this point in time, they’re lying low, so for now it’s pretty long-odds for any single Republican hopeful. To take advantage of this, use our recommended sportsbooks to splash a bit of cash on a handful of well-known Republicans — Mike Pence (15/1), John Kasich (20/1), Marco Rubio (50/1), Ben Sasse (80/1), Tom Cotton (90/1), Ted Cruz (100/1) might prove to be a savvy bet.

 


Odds to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump (Republican): 7/3

Kamala Harris (Democrat):  9/1

Elizabeth Warren (Democrat): 10/1

Bernie Sanders (Democrat): 10/1

Mike Pence (Republican): 15/1

Cory Booker (Democrat): 17/1

Joe Biden (Democrat): 20/1

John Kasich (Republican): 20/1

Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat): 25/1

Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 45/1

Marco Rubio (Republican): 50/1

Ben Sasse (Republican): 80/1

Tom Cotton (Republican): 90/1

Ted Cruz (Republican): 100/1