Political Odds: The Brief Wondrous Life of The Mooch

The Mooch is out!

Hired as the new White House communications director and tasked with weeding out the leakers, Anthony Scaramucci exploded onto the scene and hit the ground running. After firing a handful of aides who he deemed to be leakers and seemingly earning full support from the President, things were looking pretty rosy for the Mooch.

Then, in a late night phone call with a New Yorker reporter, Scaramucci called the now former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus “a f—ing paranoid schizophrenic, a paranoiac.” It’s no secret that the two were at odds with each other, and Scaramucci made his intentions known, adding: “he’ll be asked to resign very shortly.”

That turned out to be true. Priebus was booted from the White House with his tail between his legs and replaced with John Kelly, a retired four-star Marine general. It seemed like the Mooch had, once again, emerged victorious.

But Kelly’s first action as chief of staff was to remove Scaramucci, and so after just ten glorious days on the job, the Mooch is now another casualty within the chaotic Trump administration.

With Scaramucci out of the picture, who holds the aces in the Trump administration? At the moment, it seems John Kelly is the one in control. But it’s only a matter of time until the knives start coming out for him as well.

Donald Trump Odds

Over/Under on duration of John Kelly’s tenure: 9 months

John Kelly was brought on to restore law and order inside the Trump administration. The retired general has already taken the first step by firing Scaramucci, but there’s a lot more that needs to be done. The steady drip of leaks from the White House continues, and so does the infighting.

How will the power brokers within the Trump administration, like Steve Bannon and the Trump kids, react when Kelly tightens the chain of command?

And when it comes time for Kelly to defend the indefensible, will he stand by Trump or choose to walk?

Odds Sean Spicer returns to the White House: 3/1

If there’s one compliment we can give Sean Spicer, it’s that he has an amazing tolerance for pain. Forced to lie and debase himself on a regular basis, Spicer endured the mockery and humiliation that came with defending Trump’s tweets and his off-the-cuff statements.

From defending Trump’s claim about winning the popular vote (if you account for the three million fraudulent votes), to explaining Trump’s lie about Obama wiretapping Trump Tower (it depends on what you mean by “wiretapping”), to parroting the objectively untrue statement that Trump had a larger inauguration crowd than Obama, there was nothing Spicer wouldn’t say to defend the President.

Spicer resigned immediately after Scaramucci was hired. And now, with the Mooch kicked to the curb, maybe it’s time for him to return.

Odds to leave the Trump Administration in 2017:

Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Press Secretary): 1/1

John Kelly (Chief of Staff): 2/1

Jared Kushner (Advisor, son-in-law): 4/1

Rex Tillerson (Secretary of State): 4/1

Donald Trump (Mr. President): 6/1

Sean Spicer, Reince Priebus, Anthony Scaramucci — who’s next?

With both Spicer and Scaramucci out, Sarah Huckabee Sanders must be feeling the heat. Press Secretaries have a short shelf life under any administration, so it’s really a question of when Huckabee Sanders walks.

Kelly likes to run a tight ship, but he’s been tasked with captaining a battered, leaking boat. He has the President’s support for now, but it’s only a matter of time until his rigid style clashes with Trump’s penchant for chaos.

Same goes for Rex Tillerson, who is reportedly frustrated with both Trump and Kushner. He’s not happy about Kushner being embroiled in a new Russia-related scandal every week. 

Then there’s the President himself. With an administration in disarray, the Republicans slowly starting to turn on him, and almost no accomplishments after six months, there’s a very real (but small) chance that Trump bows out — either by resignation or removal.