Political Odds: Trump Jr. Shoots Himself in the Foot

This “Russia Collusion” story is too big for just one Donald Trump. This week, the president’s first-born, Donald Trump Jr., has been caught up in the never-ending scandal.

Trump’s eldest son was baited into meeting with a Russian lawyer when he was promised “official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary [Clinton]” in an email. Trump Jr. pounced at the opportunity, replying enthusiastically: “if it’s what you say I love it.”

But according to Trump Jr., it turned out to be a good old fashion bait and switch. Instead of doling out dirt on Clinton, the Russian lawyer used the opportunity to talk about Russia’s adoption policy.

In an effort to downplay the story, Trump Jr. confirmed the meeting, released the email thread over Twitter, and called the story a “nothingburger”. But by doing so, he’s dragged two familiar names into the scandal: then-campaign manager Paul Manafort and Trump’s closest advisor and son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

It turns out that both were present at the meeting, though Trump Jr. claims they were unaware of its purpose. That’s believed to be untrue since Kushner and Manafort were forwarded the emails.

The fact that the Trump campaign was at least willing to collude with the Kremlin is now undeniable. Three members of Trump’s inner circle were ready to receive information on Hillary Clinton from the Russian government, and that’s a pretty big deal.

Will anything actually come of this? Will Trump Jr., Manafort, or Kushner pay any price for their meeting, or will Trump and his team continue to dodge any and all bullets fired their way? And how does this affect Trump’s chances of impeachment? Here are the numbers.

TRUMP & TEAM ODDS

Odds to face charges in 2017

• Paul Manafort: 4/1
• Jared Kushner: 4/1
• Donald Trump Jr.: 17/3

Unlike Trump Jr., this isn’t Jared Kushner or Paul Manafort’s first rodeo. Both have been embroiled in the Trump-Russia scandal for some time.

Manafort is under investigation by several federal agencies and has had an FBI criminal investigation on him since 2014. He’s one of the shadier figures of the Trump campaign, and after it was revealed that he may have illegally received $12.7 million from a Putin ally, he was promptly ousted from the campaign.

Kushner came under fire after he secretly met with Russian officials in order to establish a “secret and secure communications channel” with the Kremlin.

Trump Jr., on the other hand, probably doesn’t have too much dirt on his hands. His actions may have dragged Kushner and Manafort back into the mud, but it doesn’t look like he did anything illegal himself. This whole meeting scandal makes him look more naive than criminal. 

Odds President Trump is successfully impeached: 4/1

This is one more piece of the much larger Trump-Russia puzzle, but it doesn’t directly implicate Trump, himself. As Sascha noted in May, it is notoriously difficult to successfully impeach a president. Especially now that Republicans control both chambers of Congress, impeachment seems near-impossible.

That could change after the midterms, though. And this scandal is another setback for Republicans running for reelection. For that reason, the odds for Trump’s impeachment have shifted slightly from 9/2 to 4/1.

Odds the 25th Amendment is invoked in 2017: 100/1

After Trump tweeted a deeply personal attack on MSNBC host Mika Brzezinski, Democrats called for Trump’s removal by invoking the 25th amendment, which allows the Vice-President and the cabinet to remove a President who is unfit for the job. 

It’s never been done before, and it would be an extreme action to take. At the moment, this is just wishful thinking from Democrats.