Politics Odds: Trump Finally Announces Press Conference

After over 160 days without a formal press conference, president-elect Donald Trump tweeted out on Tuesday: “I will be having a general news conference on JANUARY ELEVENTH in N.Y.C. Thank you.”

Press conferences aren’t exactly Trump’s preferred method of communication. He’d rather express himself through tweets and rally speeches. His interviews have been mostly with shows and journalists who already hold a favorable view of him, like Sean Hannity and Fox & Friends. So expect some butting heads.

After being elected, Trump had an off-the-record meeting with prominent members of the media where he lampooned them for what he believed to be dishonest and biased reporting on him. There’s already a lot of tension between journalists regarding Trump, and it may come to a boiling point on January 11th.

Hot on everyone’s mind is the alleged Russian involvement in the recent election. Trump has doubled down on his skepticism over this, putting him at odds with the intelligence community and even the majority of the Republican party. By the time the conference rolls around, Trump will have had several intelligence briefings on the matter and will definitely be pressed on the issue.

And then there’s the questions surrounding his foreign business entanglements and the conflicts of interests that could cause. Trump has already removed himself from the Trump organization on paper, but his children are now in charge, and it’s naive to think that he doesn’t still have a vested interest in the company. This topic has infuriated Trump in the past and it will be interesting to see how he responds.

Along with defending himself, Trump will also be called to defend his controversial appointments.
He’ll have to justify his Secretary of State pick, Rex Tillerson, a former CEO of ExxonMobil with strong business ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. And then there’s the presumptive Secretary of Defense nominee, James Mattis, a former board member of the heavily scrutinized Theranos Inc.

On top of that all, there’s questions over his refusal to release his taxes, his recent comments on Israel, his threat to leave NATO, and his plan to repeal Obamacare…and the list goes on.

As you can see, there’s a lot that could happen at the press conference. There’s even a decent chance it doesn’t happen at all. Here are our odds!


Trump Press Conference Odds:

Odds Donald Trump cancels/postpones his January 11th press conference: 7/3

If the press conference is cancelled/postponed, odds on the stated reason:

Focused on his transition: 7/3
World events: 3/1
Media’s unfairness, bias, corruption, etc.: 4/1
Business commitment: 97/3
Family matters: 99/1
Golf outing: 1000/1

Odds Trump’s press conference will be held at a Trump-branded property: 1/1

Odds the following Trump cabinet members DO NOT get confirmed:

Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education: 3/7
Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State: 2/3
Elaine Chao, Secretary of Transportation: 6/1
John Kelly, Homeland Security: 9/1
Wilber Ross – Secretary of Commerce: 9/1
Jeff Sessions – Attorney General: 1/1
Ben Carson – Housing & Urban Development: 3/2

Over/Under on PolitiFact’s “Pants of Fire” Rating for Trump’s Press Conference: 2

Odds Trump admits Vladimir Putin/Russia was behind the hacking: 17/3

Odds Trump praises Putin: 4/1

Odds Trump criticizes Putin: 9/1

Odds of Trump saying each of the following:

Obamacare is a Disaster: 1/1
Nobody is sure what is going on: 4/1
I’m Smart: 4/1
Make America Great Again: 9/1
Drain the Swamp: 15/1
Democrat Clowns in Senate/Congress: 20/1

Which of these words will Trump use the most during the press conference:

Disaster/Bad: 7/3
Terrific/Amazing: 3/1
Tremendous/Huge/Bigly/Big League: 7/1
Out of Control: 9/1
Win/Winner/Winning: 9/1
Lightweight/Loser: 19/1

Over/under on length of Trump’s press conference: 1 hour

Odds on who will ask the first question:

Associated Press: 4/1
Wall Street Journal: 4/1
Fox News: 6/1
CNN: 6/1
NY Times: 9/1
Breitbart News: 99/1

Over/under number of media questions asked: 10

Odds a journalist will be allowed to ask a follow-up question: 1/1

Odds on the issue that will take up most time during the presser:

Russia/email hacks/Assange: 7/3
Trump’s Personal/Business conflicts of interest: 4/1
Healthcare: 6/1
Economy: 6/1
Immigration: 9/1
Healthcare: 99/1
China: 1000/1

Odds Trump announces/promises he will stop tweeting upon his Jan. 20th inauguration: 99/1

Over/under number of times Trump mentions “Ford”, “General Motors” or “GM” combined: 3


Photo credit: “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.