Predicting the MTV Movie and TV Awards

In an age when almost all music videos are widely available for free online, MTV is struggling to stay relevant. Now the network that was supposed to be about “the music” has become the epicenter of sleazy reality shows and exploitation.

One of the stranger non-musical endeavors MTV has undertaken is its annual Movie Awards which, over the years, has been more about enabling terrible cinema than honoring the best of the film world. The show has been a glorified Teen Choice Awards that would rather celebrate another Fast and Furious film than anything of real merit.

Even the entertainment value of the pre-recorded, heavily edited show has become stagnant.

In order to freshen things up a little, MTV recently announced that the 2017 Movie Awards will be returning to a live broadcast and will now include television categories.

Congratulations, MTV! You finally figured out that TV– the thing you’re on — is just as culturally impactful on youth as movies. Either that, or the executives just wanted a way to cram in a bunch of Stranger Things fans into a building. Either way, adding TV categories will probably increase the entertainment factor for at least two minutes, like Winona seeing pizza.

That is the same face I am making while looking at this year’s nominees because some of the shows and films came out in 2016, while others came out a few weeks ago. There aren’t a lot of firm rules for this show; whatever MTV does whatever it thinks will draw viewers and voters. The biggest snub is no La La Land, except in the Best Kiss category. I’m pretty sure MTV’s core audience has seen more of La La Land than Moonlight, but I applaud the attempt at trying to be taken seriously.

Get Out leads the pack with six nominations: Movie of the Year, Best Villain, Best Fight Against the System, Best Actor in a Movie, Next Generation and Best Duo. Beauty and the Beast and Stranger Things received four nominations apiece, while Atlanta, Game of Thrones, Hidden Figures, Logan, Moonlight and This Is Us received three noms.

Now you might think that a jaded curmudgeon like myself has no place trying to predict how high-schoolers will vote. But, thanks to a tremendously painful surgical process, I was able to tap into my inner 16-year-old, and below I have added my odds on who is most likely to win for each category.

The new-and-improved awards show will be hosted by Adam DeVine and takes place at Los Angeles’ Shrine Auditorium and will air live on Sunday, May 7 at 8 p.m. ET/PT on MTV.

MTV Movie and Television Odds

Movie of the Year:

This is a tough category to call but in the past, Star Wars usually rules the day at the MTV Movie Awards. Rogue One was a massive film and, although Beauty and the Beast and Get Out were huge hits as well, something tells me the popcorn award will go to Darth Vader and crew. Hard to take this seriously with no La La Land. Just saying.

• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: 3/2
• Beauty and the Beast: 3/1
• Get Out: 4/1
• Logan: 9/1
• The Edge of Seventeen: 19/1

Best Actor in a Movie:

Although I really liked James McAvoy in Split, Hugh Jackman is the favorite here due to his final performance as Wolverine in the Logan movie. Emma Watson could sneak in and steal it though because she’s a triple threat: she sings, she dances, and she was in Harry Potter. 

• Hugh Jackman (Logan): 2/1
• Emma Watson (Beauty and the Beast): 3/1
• Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures): 4/1
• James McAvoy (Split): 17/3
• Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out): 25/1
• Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen): 50/1

Show of the Year:

It wouldn’t be crazy to see Atlanta or Game of Thrones take the prize for Show of the Year, but it would be strange.

• Stranger Things: 1/1
• Atlanta: 3/1
• Game of Thrones: 4/1
• This Is Us: 30/1
• Pretty Little Liars: 100/1
• Insecure: 125/1

Best Actor in a Show:

I’m sticking with the cultural phenomenon that is The Upside Down.

• Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things): 11/9
• Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones): 2/1
• Donald Glover (Atlanta): 17/3
• Jeffrey Dean Morgan (The Walking Dead): 19/1
• Gina Rodriquez (Jane the Virgin): 100/1
• Mandy Moore (This Is US): 150/1

Best Comedic Performance:

Wrong. None of these are the best comedic performances of the year. I’ll lean towards Lego Batman.

• Will Arnett (The Lego Batman Movie): 2/1
• Seth MacFarlane (Family Guy): 3/1
• Lil Rey Howery (Get Out): 3/1
• Ilana Glazer and Abbi Jacobson (Broad City): 9/1
• Adam Devine (Workaholics): 15/1

Best Hero:

It will be kind of hilarious when a superhero doesn’t win in this category. It’s a race between Felicity and Millie and I have no idea who runs faster. Probably another win for the Empire.

• Felicity Jones (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story): 3/2
• Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things):2/1
• Grant Gustin (The Flash): 9/1
• Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures): 15/1
• Stephen Amell (Arrow): 23/2
• Mike Colter (Luke Cage): 49/1

Best Villian:

No Donald Trump on the list? Again, this gets into a popularity contest (thus, why Donald isn’t on here) and my best guess is that it’ll be between Jeffrey Dean Morgan and a CGI’ed demon. Both those shows are really hot with the kids right now. Just please don’t let it be Jared Leto.

• Jeffrey Dean Morgan (The Walking Dead): 11/8
• Demongorgon (Stranger Things): 3/2
• Allison Williams (Get Out): 9/1
• Wes Bentley (American Horror Story: Roanoke): 13/1
• Jared Leto (Suicide Squad): 130/1

Best Duo:

This is where I think Atlanta could finally take a much-deserved award, but Jackman and Keen could claw their way to the top.

• Brian Tyree Henry and Lakeith Stanfield (Atlanta): 2/1
• Luke Evans and Josh Gad (Beauty and the Beast): 4/1
• Hugh Jackman and Dafne Keen (Logan): 17/3
• Daniel Kaluuya and Lil Rel Howery (Get Out): 17/3
• Blake Shelton and Adam Levine (The Voice): 9/1
• Martha Stewart and Snoop Dogg (Martha and Snoop’s Potluck Dinner Party): 15/1

Best Kiss:

It’s already embarrassing that MTV doesn’t have La La Land in the Movie of the Year category, so they will do their best to make up for it by having Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone appear on stage. I have no idea how you would rate the best kiss. Are there bonus points for creative tongue action? How much lip is too much lip?

• Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling (La La Land): 2/3
• Ashton Sanders and Jharrel Jerome (Moonlight): 3/1
• Emma Watson and Dan Stevens (Beauty and the Beast): 9/1
• Zac Efron and Anna Kendrick (Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates): 25/1
• Taraji P. Henson and Terrence Howard (Empire): 85/1

Best Tearjerker:

Hold the door! (Sorry spoiler.)

• Hodor’s Death (Game of Thrones): 2/3
• Paula Loves Chiron (Moonlight): 3/1
• Jack and Randall Karate (This Is Us): 9/1
• Will Leaves Louisa (Me Before You): 97/3
• Derek’s Death (Grey’s Anatomy): 50/1

Best Host:

Ellen has the leg up because kids today would rather listen to fluff instead of hearing some truth from John Oliver.

• Ellen DeGeneres Show: 1/1
• Full Frontal with Samantha Bee: 4/1
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: 4/1
• RuPaul’s Drag Race: 10/1
• Daily Show with Trevor Noah: 100/1

Best Reality Competition Show:

The ratings don’t lie, The Voice is the favorite to sing it’s way to victory, but look out for The Bachelor, which could be the surprise twist.

• The Voice: 2/3
• The Bachelor: 3/1
• RuPaul’s Drag Race: 9/1
• America’s Got Talent: 24/1
• MasterChef Junior: 100/1

Best American Story:

Here is the most nonsensical category of the night. I’ll take the one about racism. Racism is hot right now.

• Moonlight: 9/11
• Black-ish: 4/1
• Jane the Virgin: 17/3
• Transparent: 10/1
• Fresh Off the Boat: 100/1

Best Documentary:

How many teens or young people do you know who watched any of these documentaries? Yeah exactly.

• O.J.: Made in America: 2/1
• I Am Not Your Negro: 4/1
• 13th: 4/1
• This Is Everything: Gigi Gorgeous: 17/3
• Time: The Kalief Browder Story: 8/1

Best Fight Against the System:

This category was once named Best Fight but is now Best Fight Against the System. Sign of the times? Hidden Figures and Get Out are my favorites, but don’t count out Mr. Robot. This one is a tough one to call and the odds reflect that.

• Get Out: 2/1
• Mr. Robot: 3/1
• Hidden Figures: 3/1
• Loving: 17/3
• Luke Cage: 100/1

Next Generation:

I guess this category is supposed to crown the next big thing, right? Daniel Kaluuya was great in Get Out so I could see him getting a few votes. Riz Ahmed is everywhere right now as he was in shows like Girls, The OA and of course Rogue One. Can we vote for Bernie Sanders?

• Riz Ahmed: 3/2
• Daniel Kaluuya: 2/1
• Chrissy Metz: 3/1
• Issa Rae: 9/1
• Yara Shahidi: 20/1
  

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