Prediction Markets Odds for Warner Bros Takeover

• The bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery intensifies with Paramount Skydance submitting a new offer after WBD agreed to a deal with Netflix last week.
• The WBD board will assess if the Paramount deal is better for the company, and then Netflix will have four days to improve its offer.
• Will WBD have a new owner before July 2027? Kalshi has markets on the two powerhouses fighting for control of it.

For a moment, it looked like Netflix’s all-cash offer had sealed the deal on the company acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets for $27.75 per share. However, this morning WBD’s board announced that it is reviewing a new offer from Paramount Skydance that would include the sale of the company’s streaming, studio, and cable television channels, along with paying a $2.8 billion breakup fee to Netflix and around $650 million per quarter that deal fails to finalize in 2027.

The board previously sided with the Netflix deal, believing it would allow them to get even more back by selling the cable stations to a third party. Selling the cable assets separately was not seen as the best move by all, with one major investor criticizing the gamble and calling for WBD to re-engage in talks with Paramount.

The new offer has flipped the markets for the favorite company to take over Warner Bros. Discovery at Kalshi, where new users can claim the Kalshi referral code to receive a $10 sign-up bonus once $100 in trades have been completed.

Who Will Acquire Warner Bros?

As the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount drags on, traders on Kalshi have watched as the prediction markets flip with every offer. By the end of 2025, the markets seemed to have settled on the belief that Netflix’s all-cash offer would seal the deal with a 20% lead over Paramount and growing that lead to over 50% by mid-January.

However, before the latest offer Paramount even reached the table, Netflix started losing its grip on the lead. Pressure from legislators to get WBD and Netflix to confirm the merger will not take jobs away from Hollywood and other prominent production sites may have led to the market losing confidence in the sale. The final nail in the coffin for Netflix’s dominance in the market was WBD’s announcement that it was entering a seven-day window to explore a new offer from Paramount.

The new offer from Paramount has erased Netflix’s high of 71% and brought the markets for the two media giants much closer. Paramount is sitting as the favorite to successfully acquire Warner Bros. Discovery at a 49.6% implied probability rate, with Netflix trailing behind at 40.4%. There is also the dark horse option that neither company will acquire WBD before July 2027, currently riding at 10%.

If the board approves Paramount’s latest offer, it does not mean the action is over. Netflix will then have four days to put a new deal on the table and win back WBD’s board. With the bidding heating up, traders at Kalshi should keep an eye on this volatile market.

Will Paramount Successfully Take Over Warner Bros?

Paramount Skydance continues to show that it has the capital to aggressively pursue Warner Bros. Discovery. After having their previous offer turned down, even though it guaranteed more money, Paramount may have come to WBD’s board with a godfather offer. Analysts from MoffettNathanson believe that if Paramount offered around $34 per share, they could seal the deal, which would drastically overshadow Netflix’s offer of $27 per share.

Not only does Paramount have the money to back this acquisition, but it also may have the support of President Trump. During Paramount’s merger with Skydance, the company made several concessions to the administration to help ensure the FCC would approve the acquisition. Furthering this backing, over the weekend, Trump called for Netflix to fire Susan Rice, one of its board members, or “face the consequences.” While the president has said that he would not get involved in the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount, he may have just tipped his hat as to who he wants to be the new owners of WBD.

With a strong desire to acquire powerful media outlets, the war chest to back it, and potential support from the president, Paramount is hard to argue against. All of these factors contribute to rising from the ashes of December to sitting in the lead in February at nearly 50%.

Odds on Netflix Successfully Taking Over Warner Bros.

Netflix may no longer have the top market on Kalshi, but it’s still the current offer that the Warner Bros. Discovery board has agreed to and is very much in the driver’s seat. At 41%, Netflix is only trailing Paramount by only 8% and gaining; the market is not ready to quit on them just yet.

Even if the WBD board does side with the new Paramount offer, Netflix will have four days to counter. Netflix has already laid out tens of millions in a cash offer for just part of WBD. Will they be willing to spend even more for part or all of Warner Bros? The move could bolster the streaming giant’s catalogue and firmly implant the company in a legacy studio in Hollywood, while it builds out another studio in New Jersey.

There is another hurdle Netflix will have to clear if the board ultimately sides with their offer in the form of the Department of Justice. Since the early days of this potential merger, there have been rumblings that it is creating a monopoly and breaking antitrust laws from members of Hollywood and legislators. The growing uncertainty of legal approval may start to impact this market more, especially now that Netflix has been issued a civil investigative demand from the DOJ.

If Netflix does come out as the winner from the bidding war, it may still face a months-long legal battle to finalize that deal, and that is when the third market option of “no deal by July 2027” will start to look very interesting.