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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Box Office Odds – Favored to Surpass $235M on Opening Weekend

JJ De La Torre

by JJ De La Torre in Entertainment

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 10:22 AM PDT

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Will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker slay at the box office? Photo by Disney/Lucasfilm.
  • This holiday, all eyes are on J.J. Abrams’ Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  • The sci-fi epic — and final film in Disney’s trilogy — will be in theatres December 20, 2019
  • How will the blockbuster film perform at the box office? Will it line up any big award nominations?

Start “The Imperial March” and get your eyes ready to read that pre-scene text scroll. It’s Star Wars time, y’all.

The incredibly successful sci-fi franchise returns to theatres this Christmas with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which will put the nail in the coffin of another trilogy.

Fans are waiting with bated breath to see how this will all play out for the Skywalker family. But will they actually show up at theatres to find out how this finale finishes?

How Much Will Rise of Skywalker Gross Domestically?

Result Odds
Over $775 Million +115
Under $775 Million -155

All odds taken Nov. 20, 2019.

Since Disney acquired Lucasfilm and the beloved Star Wars universe, they’ve done quite a lot with this franchise. Most notably, the first film they produced did massively well at the box office.

That film — 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens — ended up raking in $936,662,225 domestically. Two years later, its follow up, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, saw a major dip in earnings, pulling in only $620,181,382. That world of a difference is exactly why this year’s release leaves so many questions.

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It’s been two years again since we’ve seen these characters come to life on the big screen. It’s quite easy to imagine that fans who didn’t return last time will still come out in droves this time around. Regardless of feelings, people want to know how this story ends.

Maybe The Rise of Skywalker won’t touch Awakens‘ earnings, but it’s likely to beat Jedi. Chances are this one’s going to be a bigger hit.

Pick: Over $775 Million (+115)

How Much Will Rise of Skywalker Gross Domestically on Opening Weekend?

Result Odds
Over $235 Million -125
Under $235 Million -115

Looking again at the last two films, we see big success for the Star Wars franchise going by the numbers. The Force Awakens pulled in $247,966,675 while The Last Jedi came relatively close with $220,009,584.

Picking how well this film will do is a tough call, but it’s easy to imagine that Skywalker will do marginally better than Jedi while not performing as well as Awakens.

The release date is so close to Christmas that audiences are going to hold off on seeing it until they’re less busy. Aside from super fans, people will wait for the hype to die down too, especially since they know Star Wars films tend to stay in theatres for months.

Pick: Under $235 Million (-115)


How Much Will Rise of Skywalker Gross Worldwide?

Result Odds
Over $1.7 Billion +200
Under $1.7 Billion -300

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What Will Rise of Skywalker  Score on Rotten Tomatoes?

Result Odds
Over 90% -120
Under 90% -120

The Star Wars saga, for the most part, has a historically successful run with Rotten Tomatoes. Of the canonical saga films so far, only one (1999’s The Phantom Menace) scored rotten.

These films are beloved by fans and critics alike. Even the sometimes hated The Force Awakens earned an impressive rating of 93% on the site, while The Last Jedi saw a 91% score.

Early trailers and chatter for The Rise of Skywalker show an impressed and excited fan base. People are going to love this film, and with the budget of $179 that Disney has poured into this thing, they’re trying damned hard to give people a good bang for their buck.

After all, they want to see that return of investment come back in a big way.

Pick: Over 90% (-120)


 Will Rise of Skywalker  Be Nominated For or Win Best Picture at the Academy Awards?

Result Nominated For Win
Yes +550 +7500
No -1000

The Star Wars franchise has never seen an Academy Award for Best Picture, and it’s unlikely that it’s going to happen now.

Out of the films released so far, only the original 1977 film Star Wars (retroactively titled Star Wars: Episode IV – A New Hope) saw a nomination in this category. It lost to Woody Allen’s Annie Hall.

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Looking at other franchises who’ve fared well in Best Picture, Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King won in 2003, but keep in mind the film’s other releases were also nominated in prior years.

Since none of the Star Wars films aside from the first release have seen Best Picture noms, this one’s a no brainer. Sorry, Skywalker. See you in the technical categories, though.

Pick: No (-1000)

Will Rise of Skywalker Surpass Avengers: Endgame as Top Grossing Movie of All Time?

Result Odds
Yes +900
No -3500

Avengers: Endgame is a tough one to beat. With an immense box office value of $2,797,800,564, Endgame managed to take down a challenging competitor when it dethroned Avatar. That record had been held by over a decade.

Skywalker is going to excite fans, but they’re not going to come out for this one in the way Marvel fans came out for Endgame.

Pick: No (-3500)

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