Updated 2017 Emmy Odds: Are we in for Stranger Things?

Photo Credit: Netflix CC License

The Emmys are coming but, unfortunately, winter is not.

Does it seem weird (or maybe “strange” is the better word) that even though we just watched a gripping season of Game of Thrones (GoT), due to “the rules” set forth by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, we have to wait a year before GoT Season 7 gets its official Emmy nods?

Not having any Targaryens or Starks at this year’s Emmy soiree (8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT, Sep. 17 on CBS) will make it seem like we’re living in some sort of “upside down” universe! And it’s in that kind of wacky universe where Stranger Things — perhaps best described as a mashup of The Goonies and The X-Files — is the front-runner to win for Outstanding Drama Series.

Back in the summer of 2016, the quirky 80s nostalgia series caught lightning in a bottle, but just like this year’s Game of Thrones, the show had to wait a year to be eligible for the Emmys. That year off has done nothing to slow Netflix’s pop-culture phenom, which rides tidal wave of momentum into this year’s award show.

Since the last time we did this exerciseStranger Things has risen from a tepid 4/1 third-choice to a 2/1 favorite, taking the shine off the other Netflix gem, The Crown, which was the front-runner after reigning supreme at the Golden Globes.

The Crown is still likely to get some love at the Emmys. Star Claire Foy, who won both a Globe and SAG Award for her portrayal of a young Queen Elizabeth II, will be in a battle royale full of deserving women for Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series. That category also includes former Mad Men actress and eight-time Emmy nominee Elisabeth Moss, who is hoping June Offred (her character in The Handmaid’s Tale) can do what Peggy Olson (Mad Men) never could: actually win an award.

Another big mover since the last set of odds is BBC’s Black Mirror: San Junipero, a TV movie which shot up from a 25/1 underdog to a 2/3 favorite. Black Mirror, a British sci-fi anthology series, started receiving massive amounts of Emmy attention after Netflix introduced it to Americans, even though it’s been around since 2011. That’s not to say San Junipero isn’t Emmy-worthy, merely a comment on the power of Netflix. The streaming giant garnered a company-record 93 nominations this year. Now it’s hoping to turn those noms into actual wins, something chief rival HBO has been doing for years. Even with no Jon Snow, HBO holds a whopping 110 nominations, leading all networks/providers. Its new series Westworld could potentially take up the Westerosi slack.

The 2017 Emmys are shaping up to be a pretty competitive and somewhat curious event. Just like a lot of the nominated shows, you can expect a few twists and surprises, but luckily nothing incestuous. (Amirite, GoT fans?)

Family business aside, we have hit reset on our odds, updating them in light of expert predictions, the odds available at various online betting sites, the latest rumors and buzz, and — as always — the pure prognostical genius of this writer. As you’ll see below, the favorites for some awards are effectively unchanged, while other categories see complete upheaval.


69th PRIMETIME EMMY AWARDS ODDS

The Handmaids Tale on Hulu
Photo Credit: George Kraychyk/Hulu CC License

Outstanding Drama Series

  • Stranger Things (Netflix): 2/1 [up from 4/1]
  • The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu): 3/1 [up from 9/1]
  • This Is Us (NBC): 17/3
  • The Crown (Netflix): 17/3 [down from 3/1]
  • Westworld (HBO): 19/1 [down from 3/1]
  • Better Call Saul (AMC): 25/1
  • House of Cards (Netflix): 50/1 [up from 100/1]

Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series

  • Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu): 7/13 [up from 3/1]
  • Claire Foy – The Crown (Netflix): 3/1 [down from 3/2]
  • Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder (ABC): 19/1 [down from 4/1]
  • Robin Wright – House of Cards (Netflix): 25/1
  • Keri Russell – The Americans (FX): 50/1 [down from 9/1]
  • Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld (HBO): 50/1 [up from 100/1]

Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series

  • Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC): 9/11 [up from 2/1]
  • Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC): 2/1 [up from 3/1]
  • Anthony Hopkins – Westworld (HBO): 25/1
  • Kevin Spacey – House of Cards (Netflix): 25/1 [down from 5/1]
  • Matthew Rhys – The Americans (FX): 50/1 [down from 17/3]
  • Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us (NBC): 100/1
  • Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan (Showtime): 100/1 [down from 9/1]

Outstanding Limited Series

  • Big Little Lies (HBO): 2/3 [up from 3/1]
  • Feud: Bette and Joan (FX): 3/1 [down from 2/1]
  • The Night Of (HBO): 9/1 [down from 4/1]
  • Fargo (FX): 25/1 [down from 4/1]
  • Genius (National Geographic): 100/1

Outstanding TV Movie

  • Black Mirror: San Junipero (Netflix): 2/3 [up from 25/1]
  • Sherlock: The Lying Detective (Masterpiece) (PBS): 4/1 [up from 17/3]
  • The Wizard Of Lies (HBO): 17/3 [down from 1/4]
  • The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks (PBS): 25/1 [up from 100/1]
  • Christmas Of Many Colors: Circle Of Love (NBC): 100/1 [up from 1000/1]

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies (HBO): 3/7 [up from 4/1]
  • Jessica Lange – Feud (FX): 4/1 [down from 3/7]
  • Susan Sarandon – Feud (FX): 25/1
  • Carrie Coon – Fargo (FX): 25/1
  • Reese Witherspoon – Big Little Lies (HBO): 100/1
  • Felicity Huffman – American Crime (ABC): 100/1

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Riz Ahmed – The Night Of (HBO): 3/2
  • Robert De Niro – Wizard of Lies (HBO): 2/1
  • Ewan McGregor – Fargo (FX): 17/3
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock (PBS): 9/1
  • John Turturro – The Night Of (HBO): 100/1
  • Geoffrey Rush – Genius (National Geographic): 150/1

Outstanding Comedy Series

  • Veep (HBO): 2/3
  • Atlanta (FX): 4/1
  • Black-ish (ABC): 9/1
  • Master of None (Netflix): 19/1
  • Modern Family (ABC): 50/1
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix): 50/1
  • Silicon Valley (HBO): 100/1

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy

  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep (HBO): 1/3
  • Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish (ABC): 17/3
  • Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie (Netflix): 19/1 [up from 50/1]
  • Allison Janney – Mom (CBS): 50/1 [up from 100/1]
  • Ellie Kemper – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix): 100/1 [down from 19/1]
  • Pamela Adlon – Better Things (FX): 100/1
  • Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie (Netflix): 100/1

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy

  • Donald Glover – Atlanta (FX): 2/3
  • Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent (Amazon): 3/1
  • Anthony Anderson – Black-ish (ABC): 9/1
  • Aziz Ansari – Master of None (Netflix): 50/1
  • William H. Macy – Shameless (Showtime): 50/1
  • Zach Galifianakis – Baskets (FX): 100/1