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Odds Say Liquid is Next Team to Beat Astralis on Nuke at LAN

Zack Bowker

by Zack Bowker in eSports

Jan 11, 2019 · 6:00 AM PST

twistzz looks to lead Liquid to be the first team to beat Astralis on Nuke at LAN in over a year. Photo by @ESLCS (Twitter)
  • Astralis currently holds a 27 straight win streak on Nuke on LAN
  • Can Liquid be the ones to beat the Danes on their best map?
  • Is there value in any other teams?

Astralis has been on an absolute tear in 2018, winning event after event almost like it’s expected. What’s really crazy though is that they have won on Nuke the past 27 times they’ve played it on LAN.

The entire year of 2018 they went undefeated on the map, falling last to mousesports at the ECS Season 4 Finals on December 17, 2017. A truly insane stat, it is pretty much an insta-ban for anyone who finds themselves coming up against the Danes.

The map 3 triumph led mousesports into the finals, where they went on to lose to FaZe 2-1. Since then, Astralis has not taken a loss on Nuke on LAN, and odds say that Liquid are the ones most likely to make their record on the map 27-1.

Odds to Beat Astralis on Nuke at LAN

Teams Odds to Beat Astralis on Nuke at LAN
Liquid +170
FaZe +225
Cloud9 +325
Fnatic +400
Ghost Gaming +400
MiBR +500
mousesports +500
NiP +700
Complexity +1200
Luminosity +1200

Can North America Break the Streak?

Though the odds say Team Liquid is the most likely to finally beat Astralis on Nuke, I think it is very unlikely that they do so. Nuke is the map that they play the least of the seven in the current rotation. In fact, they have more than twice the maps played on Cobblestone which hasn’t been in the competitive rotation for months now.

Out of the 53 maps that Liquid has played on Nuke, they hold an underwhelming 39.6% win percentage. Liquid more than likely will ban Nuke anytime that they play against Astralis, unless they are feeling extremely confident in recent matches on the map.

They played Astralis on Nuke eight times in 2018, losing 14-16 at the ESL Pro League Season 7 Finals, in what would be their closest attempt at beating the Danes. Other than that time, they only broke double digit rounds against Astralis on Nuke another three times.

Nuke: It’s a European Thing

It has always seemed that the EU Region dominates on the map Nuke, for whatever reason. Every time I see a non-European team pick Nuke, I wince just a little bit.

Two European teams that could that certainly stand a chance at breaking the streak would be mousesports and NiP.

Mousesports is a team that generally plays well on Nuke, with it being their third highest winrate at 57.9%. Oskar always seems to find himself on top of mini with the XM, and boy, does he wreak havoc from that position.

Mousesports is a team that generally plays well on Nuke, with it being their third highest winrate at 57.9%.

With STYKO back in the lineup, their teamwork should get back to the level it was in early 2018, and it just may be enough to be the ones to put the first dent in Astralis’ armor on Nuke.

NiP on the other hand is a team that seems to always play to their opponent’s level. It seems every time they match up against Astralis, it ends up being close regardless of the state that the Ninjas are in.

They currently hold a 77.2 win percentage on Nuke, making it their best map. Though they struggled against the Danes in 2018 on Nuke, only making it into double digit rounds one of the four meetings, they may just have a little bit of that famous NiP magic up their sleeves to give Astralis their first loss on the map in over a year.

Picks: mousesports (+500), NiP (+700)

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