Euro 2016 Betting – Finding the Lowest-Scoring Squad

The EURO isn’t known for high-scoring games. Four years ago, Ireland took the dubious honor of scoring the fewest goals in the tournament with just one. The Ukraine and the usually prolific Netherlands only managed two apiece.

In 2016, we’ll see 24 teams compete for the title for the first time (instead of 16). The expanded field means some defensively-suspect squads cracked this year’s lineup along with five first-time qualifiers, so the total goal count could go up. But someone is still going to end up like Ireland last year (and you can put money on who it will be).

Below, I take a look at the odds and give you my best play.

Odds to score the fewest goals at Euro 2016

Northern Ireland: 13/2

Not too long ago, playing Northern Ireland meant an easy victory for the majority of opponents. But the small nation is in something of a golden era of soccer and will be making its major international tournament debut.

The oddsmakers don’t see them generating many chances. The averaged a respectable 1.6 goals per game in the qualifiers en route to winning Group F. But now in a quartet with Germany, Poland and Ukraine, Northern Ireland will prioritize defense. That 1.6 number is going to go down.

Albania: 9/2

Just like Northern Ireland, Albania will be making its major tournament debut at Euro 2016. They finished second in their qualification group to Portugal, but only netted 1.2 GPG. They have slightly longer odds than Northern Ireland because of their opponents: France, Romania, and Switzerland. The hosts will be very tough, but Albania will have a fighting chance in the other two matches.

They scored three goals per game in friendlies against Qatar and Luxembourg this year, but only managed one per match against stiffer competition (Ukraine and Austria).

Hungary: 7/1

Back in the ’60s and ’70s, Hungary was a well-respected soccer nation, but the country has fallen off the map recently. They only scored 1.1 GPG in the qualifiers, but they reside in arguably the weakest group in the tournament with Portugal, Iceland, and Austria. They’ll generate some chances, but will they finish?

Republic of Ireland: 14/1

Ireland are the strongest team in the bottom-five by far. But they’re in the toughest group, facing Italy, Belgium, and Sweden. And offense isn’t the strength of this squad; the fact that veteran forward Robbie Keane – who’s been on the national team since 2002 – is still on the roster tells you they have a huge lack of playmakers.

Romania: 14/1

Romania shares Group A with France, Switzerland, and the aforementioned Albania. In the qualifiers, they averaged 1.1 goals per game in the qualifiers and, the last time they played in the Euro (2008), they only managed one goal in three games. They haven’t played in a Euro since 2008 when they scored one goal in three games.

The Field

Iceland: 16/1

Slovakia: 16/1

Ukraine: 18/1

Sweden: 20/1

Turkey: 20/1

Pick:

Albania plays against the host nation France and two defensive teams in Romania and Switzerland. They won’t generate many scoring chances and it’s not like they have a superstar who can create out of nowhere. I’ll take the Albanians at 9/2.

(Photo Credit: By Michael Kranewitter (Own work) CC BY-SA 3.0 at [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/at/deed.en], via Wikimedia Commons)