Euro Betting – Can Croatia Steal Top Spot from Spain?

Croatia (+340) vs Spain (-108), Draw (+200)

Spain (2-0-0, 6 pts) have already qualified for the knockout stage of Euro 2016, but first place in Group D will be up for grabs when they face a tough Croatian team (1-0-1, 4 pts) in the last fixture of the round robin portion on Tuesday at the Nouveau Stade Bordeaux (3:00 PM Eastern).

Spain currently lead the group thanks to wins over the Czech Republic (1-0) and Turkey (3-0). Croatia have a win over Turkey (1-0) and a draw against the Czechs (2-2) on their tournament resume to date.

Spain were average in their first match, but turned the dial up against Turkey. Striker Alvaro Morata scored twice – solidifying his role as Spain’s primary option on offense – and the team dominated possession. Of course, Turkey are the weakest among the Group D quartet and Morata and the rest of his teammates won’t have the same openings against a game Croatian side.

Croatia loves to hog the ball, just like Spain, and they parlayed their possession-style into a 2-0 lead over the Czechs. However, two late mistakes allowed the Czechs to knot the game and now Croatia need a win on Tuesday to claim top spot in the group. They’re virtually assured of a spot in the knockout stage already, but top spot would come with a much more favorable draw in the next round.

If Croatia are going to emerge with the full three points, they’ll have to reverse the recent history between the sides. Spain have won three of four meetings since 1999, with the fourth being a draw. The last time they met, during Euro 2012, Spanish won 1-0 en route to their second straight tournament title.

Croatia are an under-the-radar team that is better than most people realize, but beating Spain is not an easy task, especially if they play the way they did against Turkey. Take Spain to win by a goal.

Pick: Spain (-108). 

(Photo Credit: Fanny Schertzer [CC BY-SA 3.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0], via Wikimedia Commons.)