Euro Betting – Italy, Spain Get Unlucky Draw

Italy (+333) vs Spain (+108), Draw (+203)

Life ain’t fair sometimes. The draw for Euro 2016’s knockout stage was one of those times; arguably the five best teams all ended up on the same side of the bracket. Among the unlucky favorites were Italy (2-1-0) and Spain (2-1-0), who will play a rematch of the 2012 final in the Round of 16 this Monday at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis (12:00 PM Eastern).

When they met four years ago, Spain dominated 4-1, earning their second straight Euro title. A lot has changed since then, but the Spaniards remain confident they can emulate the outcome.

Italy can take solace in seeing Spain lose their first game at the Euro since 2004 during the Group Stage (a 2-1 setback to Croatia). The loss bumped Spain from top spot in the group and sent them to the tougher side of the bracket.

Most of the problems for Spain in this tournament have come in the midfield. Their last two championship squads were filled with creative midfielders who could find holes in tight defenses. Andres Iniesta is still that type of player for this team, but the 2012 Euro MVP isn’t getting much help.

And he’ll need it come Monday, when Spain will be facing an Italian defense that looked impenetrable in its first two Group Stage games, wins over Belgium (2-0) and Sweden (1-0).  They lost their third fixture against Ireland (1-0), but they’d already clinched first-place in the group and fielded something of a “B team.”

Knowing how well his defense performed in the first two, look for Italian manager Antonio Conte to employ a counter-attacking style, letting Spain have the bulk of the possession. That’s likely just fine with Spain, of course, a team which loves to patiently move the ball around until gaps open up.

Given how well the Italian defense has played and how well these teams know each other, I don’t expect many goals. A 1-0 result, one way or the other, is the best bet. With the game total at two goals, the under is the play.

Pick: UNDER 2 goals.

(Photo Credit: Football.ua [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/] via wikicommons)